Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 33

Date: 13 February 2024, Tuesday

Location: St James Park (Exeter)

Referee: Tallis S. (Eng)


	Exeter City		Derby County

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.6	2
	3.5	3.3	2.05
	3.75	3.4	2	Watch
	3.65	3.35	2.04
	3.91	3.48	2.04
	3.5	3.5	1.95
	3.62	3.54	2.03	Watch
	3.5	3.45	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.63 ↓ (4.23)	3.45 ↓ (3.69)	2.01 ↑ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Exeter City
25.9%

Draw
27.2%

Derby County
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.3%

25.6%

52.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.1%

28.4%

57.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Derby County might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Exeter City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Derby County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Exeter City - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sinisalo V. (G) 4. Aimson W. 39. Diabate C. 3. Jules Z. 14. Niskanen I. 6. Carroll T. 12. Cole R. (C) 31. Harper V. 29. Aitchison J. 20. Harris L. 27. Eisa M.	1. Wildsmith J. (G) 2. Wilson K. 35. Nelson C. 6. Cashin E. 20. Elder C. 8. Bird M. 32. Adams E. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 11. Mendez-Laing N. 9. Collins J. 27. Blackett-Taylor C.
Substitutes
19. Cox S. 5. Hartridge A. 30. MacDonald S. (G) 21. Rankine D. 26. Sweeney P. 13. Wildschut Y. 8. Woods G. (G)	7. Barkhuizen T. 5. Bradley S. 13. Loach S. (G) 17. Sibley L. 12. Smith K. 16. Thompson L. 23. Ward J.
Coaches
Caldwell G.	Warne P.

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 13 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship).

Exeter is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Derby is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Exeter could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Derby will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Exeter won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Exeter won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League One
10.02.24	Wigan Athletic - Exeter City	1:2 ✺
06.02.24	Exeter City - Peterborough United	2:1 ✺
03.02.24	Exeter City - Bristol Rovers	0:1 ✺
27.01.24	Barnsley - Exeter City	1:2 ✺
23.01.24	Bristol Rovers - Exeter City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31.5 WWLWW
- Derby County
English League One
10.02.24	Derby County - Shrewsbury Town	1:1 ✺
03.02.24	Charlton Athletic - Derby County	0:1 ✺
27.01.24	Derby County - Cheltenham Town	2:1 ✺
23.01.24	Reading - Derby County	1:0 ✺
20.01.24	Lincoln City - Derby County	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
24.10.23	Derby County - Exeter City	2:0
18.04.23	Exeter City - Derby County	1:2
25.10.22	Derby County - Exeter City	0:0

Upcoming Matches