The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Derby County 32.8%
Draw 27.6%
Stoke City 39.6%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
38.4%
28.6%
33%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39.2%
29.2%
32.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.
Stoke City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stoke City's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+6.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derby County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-7.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stoke City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
16.7%
83.3%
Derby County - Stoke City Predictions
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 23rd in the Relegation - League One and 8th in the Promotion - Championship Playoffs - Quarter - finals).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 2.
Derby is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Stoke shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Derby may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
Confirmed absences for Derby: Agyemang P.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Cashin E.
(Inactive)
Clarke M.
(Calf Injury)
Forsyth C.
(Knee Injury)
Murkin D.
(Hamstring Injury)
Taylor C.
(Injury)
Widell Zetterstrom J.
(Knee Injury).
Confirmed absences for Stoke: Ampah A.
(Inactive)
Cresswell A.
(Knee Injury)
Gallagher S.
(Inactive)
Ingelsson S.
(Muscle Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for Derby: Johnston M.
(Inactive).
In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Derby has recorded 6 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:12 (averaging 1.3:0.9 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Derby against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 11:1 goals (averaging 1.4:0.1 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
9
Stoke
10
5
1
4
17:16
1
16
23
Derby
10
1
3
6
9:19
-10
6
Outrights of English League Championship for now
Derby: 0.67%
Last Results with these Odds
Derby County - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.37%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.
Stoke City - the odds 2.82 are the expected chance of winning is 32.98%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.
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