Match Info

Championship - Round 7

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Busby J. (Eng)

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	Derby County		Birmingham City

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.3	2.1	Watch
	3.30	3.30	2.15
	3.69	3.29	2.07	Watch
	3.8	3.4	2.18
	3.41	3.43	2.14	Watch
	3.55	3.3	2.15
	3.46	3.24	2.13	Watch
	3.4	3.3	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↑ (3)	3.32 ↓ (3.42)	2.13 ↓ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
27.1%

Draw
28.5%

Birmingham City
44.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

27.6%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

27%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Birmingham City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Derby County - Birmingham City Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Birmingham will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Birmingham: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 23. Ward J. 6. Langas S. 44. Cashin E. 18. Taylor C. 8. Clark B. 4. Ozoh D. 16. Fuseini M. 11. Szmodics S. 19. Meister H. 9. Morris C. (C)	1. Beadle J. (G) 26. Osayi-Samuel B. 5. Neumann P. 4. Klarer C. (C) 20. Cochrane A. 24. Iwata T. 14. Solis Romero J. E. 7. Vicente C. 28. Stansfield J. 17. Millar L. 9. Priske A.
Substitutes
33. Blackett-Taylor C. 29. Fraulo O. 26. Hedges R. 22. Johnston M. 20. Mowatt A. 24. Nyambe R. 15. Salvesen L. 28. Sanderson D. 31. Vickers J. (G)	21. Allsop R. (G) 3. Buchanan L. 33. Ducksch M. 23. Fry D. 27. Fujimoto K. 2. Laird E. 25. Lund K. 8. Paik Seung-Ho 32. Vazquez L.
Coaches
Eustace J.	Davies C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', Fuseini M. 🟨,
21', Cochrane A. 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Clark B. ⚽, Szmodics S. (A),
42', 1 - 1, Vicente C. ⚽, Millar L. (A),
44', Priske A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Meister H. ↓, Fraulo O. ↑,
60', Solis Romero J. E. ↓, Paik Seung-Ho ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Paik Seung-Ho ⚽, Millar L. (A),
73', Priske A. ↓, Vazquez L. ↑,
73', Millar L. ↓, Laird E. ↑,
85', Ozoh D. ↓, Blackett-Taylor C. ↑,
85', Cashin E. ↓, Hedges R. ↑,
90+4', Vicente C. 🟨,
90+5', Taylor C. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
90+6', Stansfield J. ↓, Lund K. ↑,
90+6', Vicente C. ↓, Fry D. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 1.

Recent form of Derby has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Birmingham has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Birmingham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Birmingham could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Derby: Agyemang P. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Bilbija F. (Inactive) Brewster R. (Injury) Clarke M. (Calf Injury) Forsyth C. (Knee Injury) Morris C. (Calf Injury) Murkin D. (Hamstring Injury) Travis L. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Birmingham: Bird M. (Inactive) Gardner-Hickman T. (Injury) Leonard M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Solis Romero J. E. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Birmingham: Gray D. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derby won 9 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 38:25. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.5:1.4).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Birmingham: 4.52% Derby: 0.67%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Birmingham	8	2	5	1	12:11	1	11
22	Derby	8	1	2	5	7:14	-7	5

Last Results with these Odds

Derby County - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 31.49%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Birmingham City - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 40.89%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
09.09.26	Derby County - West Bromwich Albion	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	West Ham United - Derby County	3:0 ✺
01.09.26	Portsmouth - Derby County	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Derby County - Swansea City	0:3 ✺
22.08.26	Derby County - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWLT
- Birmingham City
English League Championship
09.09.26	Norwich City - Birmingham City	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Birmingham City - Wolverhampton Wanderers	2:2 ✺
01.09.26	Birmingham City - Southampton	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Wrexham - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Birmingham City - Brentford	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
21.03.26	Derby County - Birmingham City	1:0
26.12.25	Birmingham City - Derby County	1:1
30.01.22	Derby County - Birmingham City	2:2
10.09.21	Birmingham City - Derby County	2:0
24.04.21	Derby County - Birmingham City	1:2
29.12.20	Birmingham City - Derby County	0:4
22.07.20	Birmingham City - Derby County	1:3

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