Match Info

Championship - Round 7

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Pride Park (Derby) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Busby J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App, SupeSport ESPN 1
Argentina	08:30	Disney+, FOX Sports 3
Armenia	15:30	Setanta Sports 1
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	13:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Premier League
Azerbaijan	15:30	Setanta Sports 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	13:30	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	08:30	Disney+
Bulgaria	14:30	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	07:30	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network
Croatia	13:30	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	13:30	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Estonia	14:30	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	—	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	14:30	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	13:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9
Georgia	15:30	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	13:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, WOW
Iceland	11:30	Viaplay
India	17:00	FanCode, FanCode
Ireland	12:30	NOW
Israel	14:30	Sport 2
Japan	20:30	DAZN Japan
Kenya	14:30	Gotv
Kosovo	13:30	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	17:30	Setanta Sports 1
Lithuania	14:30	Go3 Extra Sports
Malta	13:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	05:30	Disney+
Moldova	14:30	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	13:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	23:30	beIN Connect
Nigeria	12:30	SupeSport ESPN 1
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	13:30	Arena Premium 3
Norway	13:30	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Peru	06:30	Disney+
Serbia	13:30	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	19:30	mio Sports 1
Slovenia	13:30	Arena Sport 1
South Africa	13:30	SupeSport ESPN
Sweden	13:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	13:30	Sky Sport Premier League
Tajikistan	16:30	Setanta Sports 1
Turkmenistan	16:30	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	14:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United Kingdom	12:30	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football
Uruguay	08:30	Disney+
Usa	07:30	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+, SportsEngine Play
Uzbekistan	16:30	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	07:30	Disney+


	Derby County		Birmingham City

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.3	2.1	Watch
	3.30	3.30	2.15
	3.69	3.29	2.07	Watch
	3.8	3.4	2.18
	3.41	3.43	2.14	Watch
	3.55	3.3	2.15
	3.46	3.24	2.13	Watch
	3.4	3.3	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↑ (3)	3.32 ↓ (3.42)	2.13 ↓ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
27.1%

Draw
28.5%

Birmingham City
44.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.5%

27.6%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

27%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Birmingham City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Derby County - Birmingham City Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Birmingham will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Birmingham: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 23. Ward J. 6. Langas S. 44. Cashin E. 18. Taylor C. 8. Clark B. 4. Ozoh D. 16. Fuseini M. 11. Szmodics S. 19. Meister H. 9. Morris C. (C)	1. Beadle J. (G) 26. Osayi-Samuel B. 5. Neumann P. 4. Klarer C. (C) 20. Cochrane A. 24. Iwata T. 14. Solis Romero J. E. 7. Vicente C. 28. Stansfield J. 17. Millar L. 9. Priske A.
Substitutes
33. Blackett-Taylor C. 29. Fraulo O. 26. Hedges R. 22. Johnston M. 20. Mowatt A. 24. Nyambe R. 15. Salvesen L. 28. Sanderson D. 31. Vickers J. (G)	21. Allsop R. (G) 3. Buchanan L. 33. Ducksch M. 23. Fry D. 27. Fujimoto K. 2. Laird E. 25. Lund K. 8. Paik Seung-Ho 32. Vazquez L.
Coaches
Eustace J.	Davies C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', Fuseini M. 🟨,
21', Cochrane A. 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Clark B. ⚽, Szmodics S. (A),
42', 1 - 1, Vicente C. ⚽, Millar L. (A),
44', Priske A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Meister H. ↓, Fraulo O. ↑,
60', Solis Romero J. E. ↓, Paik Seung-Ho ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Paik Seung-Ho ⚽, Millar L. (A),
73', Priske A. ↓, Vazquez L. ↑,
73', Millar L. ↓, Laird E. ↑,
85', Ozoh D. ↓, Blackett-Taylor C. ↑,
85', Cashin E. ↓, Hedges R. ↑,
90+4', Vicente C. 🟨,
90+5', Taylor C. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
90+6', Stansfield J. ↓, Lund K. ↑,
90+6', Vicente C. ↓, Fry D. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 1.

Recent form of Derby has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Birmingham has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Birmingham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Birmingham could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Derby: Agyemang P. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Bilbija F. (Inactive) Brewster R. (Injury) Clarke M. (Calf Injury) Forsyth C. (Knee Injury) Morris C. (Calf Injury) Murkin D. (Hamstring Injury) Travis L. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Birmingham: Bird M. (Inactive) Gardner-Hickman T. (Injury) Leonard M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Solis Romero J. E. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Birmingham: Gray D. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derby won 9 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 38:25. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.5:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Birmingham	12	5	5	2	20:12	8	20
23	Derby	12	1	4	7	10:21	-11	7

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Birmingham: 7.86% Derby: 0.66%

Last Results with these Odds

Derby County - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 31.49%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
09.09.26	Derby County - West Bromwich Albion	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	West Ham United - Derby County	3:0 ✺
01.09.26	Portsmouth - Derby County	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Derby County - Swansea City	0:3 ✺
22.08.26	Derby County - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWLT
- Birmingham City
English League Championship
09.09.26	Norwich City - Birmingham City	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Birmingham City - Wolverhampton Wanderers	2:2 ✺
01.09.26	Birmingham City - Southampton	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Wrexham - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Birmingham City - Brentford	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
21.03.26	Derby County - Birmingham City	1:0
26.12.25	Birmingham City - Derby County	1:1
30.01.22	Derby County - Birmingham City	2:2
10.09.21	Birmingham City - Derby County	2:0
24.04.21	Derby County - Birmingham City	1:2
29.12.20	Birmingham City - Derby County	0:4
22.07.20	Birmingham City - Derby County	1:3

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