Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 23

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Ipurua (Eibar)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DSports 6
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3
Ecuador	DSports 6
Mexico	Sky Sport
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 2
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Movistar Plus+
Uruguay	DSports 6


	Eibar		Almería

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.3	3.1	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.87
	2.22	3.2	3.05	Watch
	2.38	3.3	3.34
	2.24	3.35	3.26	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3
	2.32	3.33	3.13	Watch
	2.36	3.1	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.36)	3.22 ↓ (3.4)	3.11 ↑ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Eibar
40.8%

Draw
29.1%

Almería
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

27.8%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

27.9%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Eibar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Eibar than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Eibar - Almería Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Eibar will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Almería will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Eibar: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Eibar (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Magunagoitia J. (G) 2. Cubero S. 8. Nolaskoain P. 21. Moreno M. 3. Arrillaga H. 6. Alvarez S. (C) 14. Olaetxea L. 16. Madariaga A. 10. Guruzeta J. 17. Corpas J. 20. Javier Marton	1. Fernandez A. (G) 16. Luna M. 4. Monte N. 18. Bonini F. 3. Munoz A. 8. Gui Guedes 29. Dzodic S. 12. Leo Baptistao (C) 11. Arribas S. 23. Embarba A. 24. de la Fuente M.
Substitutes
7. Alkain X. 4. Arambarri A. 18. Ares A. 9. Bautista J. 24. Buta L. 27. Garcia H. 30. Garrido A. 15. Jair 1. Lopez L. (G) 11. Magunazelaia Argoitia J. 5. Martinez J. 19. Villa T.	14. Baba I. 20. Centelles A. 15. Hernandez A. 6. Horta A. 31. Iribarne B. (G) 13. Martinez F. (G) 10. Melamed N. 7. Morcillo J. 36. Perovic M. 2. Puigmal A. 19. Soko P. 9. Thalys
Coaches
San Jose B.	Rubi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
66', de la Fuente M. ↓, Soko P. ↑,
66', Embarba A. ↓, Morcillo J. ↑,
66', Dzodic S. ↓, Baba I. ↑,
69', Madariaga A. ↓, Magunazelaia Argoitia J. ↑,
72', Gui Guedes 🟨,
77', Javier Marton ↓, Bautista J. ↑,
77', Leo Baptistao ↓, Melamed N. ↑,
79', Guruzeta J. 🟨,
83', Arribas S. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
87', Guruzeta J. ↓, Alkain X. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 0, Olaetxea L. ⚽, Nolaskoain P. (A),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Eibar won 3.

In recent matches, Eibar has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Almería is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Eibar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Eibar could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Eibar: Arbilla A. (Red Card) Ares A. (Injury)

There will not play in Almería: Bonini F. (Hamstring Injury) Chirino D. (Yellow Cards) Chumi (Knock) Fidel Cedillo Segura P. (Injury) Lopy D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Eibar: Madariaga A. (Injury) Rodriguez A. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Eibar won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Eibar won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 2.3:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Eibar	8	7	0	1	18:7	11	21
2	Almeria	9	7	0	2	16:5	11	21

Last Results with these Odds

Almería - the odds 2.93 are the expected chance of winning is 32.22%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Eibar
Spanish LaLiga2
19.01.26	Granada - Eibar	0:0 ✺
10.01.26	Burgos - Eibar	1:0 ✺
02.01.26	Eibar - Mirandés	2:1 ✺
19.12.25	Eibar - Valladolid	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.12.25	Eibar - Elche	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TLWWL
- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
17.01.26	Almería - Deportivo A Coruña	1:2 ✺
10.01.26	Mirandés - Almería	2:2 ✺
03.01.26	Almería - Granada	3:2 ✺
21.12.25	Málaga - Almería	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Almería - Burgos	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
01.11.25	Almería - Eibar	3:1
07.03.25	Eibar - Almería	1:0
22.09.24	Almería - Eibar	2:2
24.01.22	Almería - Eibar	0:2
15.10.21	Eibar - Almería	1:0
Spanish LaLiga
26.04.15	Almería - Eibar	2:0
08.12.14	Eibar - Almería	5:2

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