Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 6

Date: 29 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadio Carlo Castellani (Empoli)

Referee: Aureliano G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football, SuperSport GOtv Select 1
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Asia	STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
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Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
China	QQ Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
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Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Go3 Sport Open Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+ Sport
India	GXR World
Israel	ONE Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, Sky Calcio 1, Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 2, ART Sport 2
Malta	TSN Malta 3
Mexico	ESPN
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North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Sportbox.ru
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Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1 Champions
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tanzania	Azam Sports 4
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
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Usa	CBS, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports 1, Foxsports.com, Paramount+
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus
World	Disney+, Onefootball app


	Empoli		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.3	2.1	Watch
	3.5	3.25	2.15
	3.55	3.25	2.18	Watch
	3.82	3.31	2.19
	3.79	3.3	2.14	Watch
	3.6	3.3	2.15
	3.77	3.52	2.15	Watch
	3.6	3.3	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.67 ↑ (3.38)	3.32 ↓ (3.34)	2.16 ↓ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

Watch this match and Italian Serie A with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: FOX Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Empoli
26.3%

Draw
29.1%

Fiorentina
44.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

28.6%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

28.5%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Empoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.8%	32.4%	56.8%

Empoli - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Empoli will win (votes: 4 - 11.4%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 20 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 31.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 40.7% – 73.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Vasquez Llach D. S. (G) 2. Goglichidze S. 21. Viti M. 34. Ismajli A. 11. Gyasi E. 5. Grassi A. 6. Henderson L. (C) 3. Pezzella G. 8. Anjorin F. 99. Esposito Se. 29. Colombo L.	43. de Gea D. (G) 2. Dodo 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. 21. Gosens R. 4. Bove E. 32. Cataldi D. 23. Colpani A. 10. Gudmundsson A. 99. Kouame C. (C) 20. Kean M.
Substitutes
98. Brancolini F. (G) 13. Cacace L. 22. De Sciglio M. 19. Ekong E. 10. Fazzini J. 32. Haas N. 90. Konate I. 93. Maleh Y. 35. Marianucci L. 9. Pellegri P. 7. Sambia J. 12. Seghetti J. (G) 17. Solbakken O. 31. Tosto L.	29. Adli Y. 9. Beltran L. 3. Biraghi C. 11. Ikone J. 33. Kayode M. 8. Mandragora R. 30. Martinelli T. (G) 28. Martinez Quarta L. 22. Moreno M. 65. Parisi F. 24. Richardson A. 7. Sottil R. 1. Terracciano P. (G)
Coaches
D'Aversa R.	Palladino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Colombo L. ↓, Solbakken O. ↑,
71', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Beltran L. ↑,
71', Cataldi D. ↓, Adli Y. ↑,
72', Colpani A. ↓, Ikone J. ↑,
75', Henderson L. ↓, Ekong E. ↑,
76', Esposito Se. ↓, Pellegri P. ↑,
81', Kouame C. ↓, Sottil R. ↑,
85', Anjorin F. ↓, Haas N. ↑,
88', Gosens R. ↓, Parisi F. ↑,
90', Comuzzo P. 🟨,

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 7 and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Empoli won 1.

Empoli is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Fiorentina is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Empoli have a series of guest games.

Fiorentina will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Empoli: Ebuehi T. (Knee Injury) Sazonov S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Empoli: Belardinelli L. (Injury) Fazzini J. (Hip Injury) Perisan S. (Ankle Injury) Zurkowski S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Pongracic M. (Injury)

Last 14 head-to-head matches Empoli won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 17-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Empoli won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Empoli
Coppa Italia
24.09.24	Torino - Empoli	1:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
20.09.24	Cagliari - Empoli	0:2 ✺
14.09.24	Empoli - Juventus	0:0 ✺
31.08.24	Bologna - Empoli	1:1 ✺
25.08.24	Roma - Empoli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 36.7 WWTTW
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
22.09.24	Fiorentina - Lazio	2:1 ✺
15.09.24	Atalanta - Fiorentina	3:2 ✺
01.09.24	Fiorentina - Monza	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
29.08.24	Puskás Academy - Fiorentina	1:2 penalties ✺
Italian Serie A
25.08.24	Fiorentina - Venezia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
18.02.24	Empoli - Fiorentina	1:1
23.10.23	Fiorentina - Empoli	0:2
19.02.23	Fiorentina - Empoli	1:1
21.08.22	Empoli - Fiorentina	0:0
03.04.22	Fiorentina - Empoli	1:0
27.11.21	Empoli - Fiorentina	2:1
05.05.19	Empoli - Fiorentina	1:0

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