The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Erzgebirge Aue 9.1%
Draw 14%
Werder Bremen 76.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
18.2%
21.6%
60.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
18.7%
21%
58.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Erzgebirge Aue's form might have worsened.
Werder Bremen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Werder Bremen's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+9.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Erzgebirge Aue, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (-18.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Werder Bremen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
12.5%
5%
82.5%
Erzgebirge Aue - Werder Bremen Predictions
Users Predictions:
Werder Bremen will win
(33 of 40 users predict this - 82.5%). Confidence interval (95%): 70.72% โ 94.28%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2
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Preview
Aue is Relegated to 3. Liga
Aue has the most likely position - 17 (82.68%), has project points - 25, has currently - 23, was already of relegated.
Werder has the most likely position - 2 (65.56%), has project points - 61, has currently - 57, has not chance of relegated, has a good chance of promoted (81%), has a small chance of win league (12%).
This event has small quality28, importance50, match rating39. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Aue is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Recent matches Werder is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Werder could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Werder is absolute favorite.
Last 2 head-to-head matches Aue won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-5.
Including matches at home between the teams Aue won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.
Watch
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