Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 23

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril)

Referee: Vasilica I. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Portugal	Sport TV2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Antel TV


	Estoril Praia		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.05	3.35	2.22	Watch
	2.82	3.5	2.5
	3.22	3.51	2.19	Watch
	3.1	3.25	2.2	Watch
	3.22	3.53	2.29	Watch
	2.83	3.33	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.85)	3.41 ↑ (3.31)	2.28 ↓ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estoril Praia
31%

Draw
27.7%

Gil Vicente
41.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

28.6%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

29%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estoril Praia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.8%	27.8%	44.4%

Estoril Praia - Gil Vicente Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Estoril will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 27.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 21.4% – 67.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Gil Vicente (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Gil Vicente (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Estoril (2.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Gil Vicente (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Gil Vicente (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Estoril (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Gil Vicente (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Robles J. (G) 4. Ferro 25. Bacher F. 5. Tsoungui A. 2. Sanchez R. 6. Jandro 10. Holsgrove J. 20. Costa G. 12. Carvalho J. (C) 9. Marques A. 14. Begraoui Y.	30. Lucao (G) 2. Ze Carlos (C) 39. Buatu J. 48. Espigares A. 3. Konan G. 6. Ze Carlos 10. Esteves L. 77. Murilo de Souza 95. Garcia S. 11. Fernandes J. 89. Varela G.
Substitutes
57. Bimai L. 22. Carvalho P. 11. Edwards K. 97. Gomes L. 99. Guitane R. 91. Montes J. 70. Peixinho 21. Pizzi 16. Turk M. (G)	17. Bermejo 29. Carlos Eduardo 5. Caseres F. 99. Figueira Daniel (G) 23. Hernandez H. 20. Hevertton S. 27. Moreira A. 28. Pereira D. 80. Rodrigues R.
Coaches
Cathro I.	Peixoto C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Murilo de Souza (Penalty Awarded),
22', 1 - 1, Bacher F. ⚽, Holsgrove J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', Fernandes J. ↓, Moreira A. ↑,
59', Tsoungui A. ↓, Guitane R. ↑,
68', Costa G. ↓, Carvalho P. ↑,
73', Varela G. ↓, Hernandez H. ↑,
73', Ze Carlos ↓, Hevertton S. ↑,
74', 2 - 1, Begraoui Y. ⚽, Carvalho J. (A),
80', 3 - 1, Carvalho J. ⚽,
83', Esteves L. ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
83', Ze Carlos ↓, Caseres F. ↑,
86', Jandro ↓, Pizzi ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 1.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Gil Vicente may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Estoril: Israelov O. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Elimbi M. (Yellow Cards) Mutombo J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Estoril: Lacximicant A. (Inactive)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:18. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Estoril won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.4:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Gil Vicente	7	3	2	2	6:5	1	11
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	4:12	-8	2

Last Results with these Odds

Estoril Praia - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 33.17%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Gil Vicente - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 38.27%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
15.02.26	AVS - Estoril Praia	3:0 ✺
07.02.26	Estoril Praia - Tondela	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Santa Clara - Estoril Praia	2:4 ✺
24.01.26	Estoril Praia - Vitoria Guimarães	4:2 ✺
19.01.26	Estrela da Amadora - Estoril Praia	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LTWWW
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
14.02.26	Gil Vicente - Braga	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Moreirense - Gil Vicente	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Gil Vicente - Famalicão	5:0 ✺
26.01.26	Porto - Gil Vicente	3:0 ✺
17.01.26	Gil Vicente - Nacional	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
21.09.25	Gil Vicente - Estoril Praia	2:0
01.02.25	Gil Vicente - Estoril Praia	1:2
25.08.24	Estoril Praia - Gil Vicente	0:0
18.02.24	Estoril Praia - Gil Vicente	1:3
17.09.23	Gil Vicente - Estoril Praia	5:3
31.03.23	Estoril Praia - Gil Vicente	1:0
07.10.22	Gil Vicente - Estoril Praia	0:1

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