Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 21

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril)

Referee: Torres M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Estoril Praia		Tondela

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.9	4.5	Watch
	1.68	3.9	4.6	Watch
	1.7	3.7	4.7	Watch
	1.76	3.93	4.63
	1.71	4.03	4.57	Watch
	1.73	3.7	4.33	Watch
	1.77	4	4.62	Watch
	1.7	3.8	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.98)	3.87 ↑ (3.58)	4.59 ↑ (3.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estoril Praia
55%

Draw
24.4%

Tondela
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

26.4%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

26.3%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estoril Praia's performance.

Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tondela might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estoril Praia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tondela could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.9%	5.4%	2.7%

Estoril Praia - Tondela Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Estoril (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Tondela (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Estoril Praia will win (32 of 35 users predict this - 91.43%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.16% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Estoril Praia will win (16 of 16 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Estoril (votes: 17 - 94.4%). Tondela (votes: 1 - 5.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Robles J. (G) 4. Ferro 25. Bacher F. 24. Amaral P. 2. Sanchez R. 21. Pizzi 10. Holsgrove J. 12. Carvalho J. (C) 99. Guitane R. 9. Marques A. 14. Begraoui Y.	31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto (C) 4. Marques C. 20. Medina B. 27. Conceicao R. 10. Hodge J. 15. Sithole S. 7. Pedro Maranhao 97. Cicero 90. Aiko M. 29. Siebatcheu J.
Substitutes
22. Carvalho P. 20. Costa G. 11. Edwards K. 6. Jandro 7. Lominadze N. 70. Peixinho 5. Tsoungui A. 16. Turk M. (G) 8. Xeka	5. Afonso J. 30. Canizares L. (G) 79. Felix H. 23. Kimpioka B. 48. Manso T. 32. Rodriguez J. 44. Silva J. 8. Tavares H. 26. van der Heide A.
Coaches
Cathro I.	Bacci C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Pedro Maranhao ⚽, Aiko M. (A),
16', 0 - 2, Pedro Maranhao ⚽, Cicero (A),
26', 1 - 2, Carvalho J. ⚽, Pizzi (A),
29', 2 - 2, Ferro ⚽, Pizzi (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Pizzi ↓, Jandro ↑,
65', Hodge J. ↓, Felix H. ↑,
65', Siebatcheu J. ↓, Kimpioka B. ↑,
74', Pedro Maranhao ↓, van der Heide A. ↑,
74', Marques A. ↓, Peixinho ↑,
83', Amaral P. ↓, Costa G. ↑,
83', Ferro ↓, Tsoungui A. ↑,
84', Tsoungui A. 🟨,
90+2', Sithole S. ↓, Tavares H. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 7 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 2.

Estoril is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tondela's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Estoril is the team to beat.

There will not play in Estoril: Boma K. (Yellow Cards) Israelov O. (Thigh Injury) Lacximicant A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Estoril: Jandro (Inactive)

There are questionable in Tondela: Maviram E. (Injury)

We predict that Estoril will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:11. (average 1.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Estoril won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:3. (average 1.8:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	4:12	-8	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
31.01.26	Santa Clara - Estoril Praia	2:4 ✺
24.01.26	Estoril Praia - Vitoria Guimarães	4:2 ✺
19.01.26	Estrela da Amadora - Estoril Praia	0:5 ✺
03.01.26	Benfica - Estoril Praia	3:1 ✺
27.12.25	Estoril Praia - Alverca	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WWWLW
- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
01.02.26	Tondela - Benfica	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Famalicão - Tondela	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Tondela - Braga	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Moreirense - Tondela	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Tondela - Arouca	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
31.08.25	Tondela - Estoril Praia	2:2
Portuguese League Cup
19.11.22	Tondela - Estoril Praia	0:0
Liga Portugal
12.02.22	Estoril Praia - Tondela	1:0
Taça de Portugal
21.12.21	Tondela - Estoril Praia	3:1
Liga Portugal
13.09.21	Tondela - Estoril Praia	1:2
Taça de Portugal
21.10.18	Estoril Praia - Tondela	1:2 penalties
Liga Portugal
30.01.18	Estoril Praia - Tondela	3:0

Estoril Praia - Tondela: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide