Match Info

League One - Round 26

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: St James Park (Exeter)


	Exeter City		Lincoln City

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.9	1.66
	4.7	3.7	1.7
	4.93	3.93	1.73
	4.62	3.75	1.72	Watch
	4.6	3.6	1.7
	4.36	3.92	1.71	Watch
	3.14	3.2	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.38 ↑ (3.3)	3.71 ↑ (3.25)	1.79 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Exeter City
21.6%

Draw
25.5%

Lincoln City
52.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

28.6%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

28.1%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Exeter City's form might have worsened.

Lincoln City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lincoln City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Exeter City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lincoln City than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lincoln City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.3%	0%	73.7%

Exeter City - Lincoln City Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). Lincoln will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lincoln: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lincoln City will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Whitworth J. (G) 45. Cummins C. 26. Sweeney P. (C) 20. Woodhouse L. 14. Niskanen I. 2. McMillan J. 6. Brierley E. 34. Oakes L. 10. Aitchison J. 9. Wareham J. 27. Magennis J.	1. Wickens G. (G) 2. Darikwa T. (C) 22. Hamer T. 15. Bradley S. 3. Reach A. 14. McGrandles C. 8. Bayliss T. 20. One R. 10. Moylan J. 18. House B. 17. Street R.
Substitutes
21. Andrew D. 23. Bycroft J. (G) 12. Cole R. 19. Cox S. 17. Higgins A. 29. McDonald K. 7. Mendes C.	25. Elerewe D. 7. Hackett-Fairchild R. 13. Jeacock Z. (G) 16. Jefferies D. 19. Lloyd A. 6. Towler R. 24. Varfolomeev I.
Coaches
Taylor M.	Skubala M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Hamer T. ⚽, Reach A. (A),
36', Darikwa T. 🟨,
45+4', Bycroft J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', McMillan J. ↓, Andrew D. ↑,
56', Aitchison J. ↓, Cole R. ↑,
56', Oakes L. ↓, Higgins A. ↑,
70', House B. ↓, Jefferies D. ↑,
70', Moylan J. ↓, Towler R. ↑,
71', One R. ↓, Hackett-Fairchild R. ↑,
77', Bayliss T. 🟨,
82', Cummins C. ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
82', Street R. ↓, Lloyd A. ↑,
89', Reach A. ↓, Elerewe D. ↑,
90+7', Magennis J. 🟨,
90+7', Jefferies D. 🟨,
90+7', Bradley S. 🟨,

Preview

Postponed due to FA Cup.

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 1.

Exeter is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lincoln is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lincoln will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Exeter won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Exeter City - the odds 3.3 are the expected chance of winning is 28.17%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Lincoln City - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 43.23%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League One
07.03.26	Barnsley - Exeter City	2:1 ✺
03.03.26	Exeter City - Burton Albion	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Exeter City - Bolton Wanderers	1:5 ✺
21.02.26	Peterborough United - Exeter City	3:3 ✺
17.02.26	Exeter City - Wycombe Wanderers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTLTT
- Lincoln City
English League One
07.03.26	Cardiff City - Lincoln City	0:2 ✺
28.02.26	Lincoln City - Blackpool	4:0 ✺
21.02.26	Mansfield Town - Lincoln City	0:2 ✺
17.02.26	Lincoln City - Northampton Town	4:0 ✺
14.02.26	Lincoln City - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
04.10.25	Lincoln City - Exeter City	0:1
22.03.25	Lincoln City - Exeter City	0:0
16.11.24	Exeter City - Lincoln City	0:0
17.02.24	Lincoln City - Exeter City	1:0
28.10.23	Exeter City - Lincoln City	1:1
11.03.23	Exeter City - Lincoln City	2:1
30.07.22	Lincoln City - Exeter City	1:1

Upcoming Matches