Match Info

Date: 23 April 2022, Saturday


	Exeter City		Rochdale

	1	X	2
	1.6	4	5.5
	1.58	3.9	5.5
	1.56	3.85	6
	1.59	3.8	5.4
	1.58	4.05	6.27
	1.53	4	6
	1.62	4.15	6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.63)	3.96 ↑ (3.72)	5.81 ↑ (4.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
59.9%

Draw
23.9%

Rochdale
16.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

24.8%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.4%

24.5%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Rochdale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (+2%)

Exeter City - Rochdale Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One and 16).

Exeter has the most likely position - 2 (62.06%), has project points - 84, has currently - 77, has not chance of relegated, has a small chance of prom. playoffs (9%), has a good chance of promoted (93%), has a small chance of win league (13%).

Rochdale has the most likely position - 18 (21.39%), has project points - 53, has currently - 50, has not chance of relegated, has not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has very small quality 9, importance 32, small match rating 21. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Now both teams are in good shape.

Recently Rochdale have a series of home games.

In this match Exeter is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Exeter to win the game is with odds 1.64.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Exeter won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Exeter won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League Two
18.04.22	Tranmere Rovers - Exeter City	2:0 ✺
15.04.22	Exeter City - Colchester United	2:0 ✺
09.04.22	Carlisle United - Exeter City	0:1 ✺
02.04.22	Newport County - Exeter City	0:1 ✺
26.03.22	Exeter City - Stevenage Borough	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWWWW
- Rochdale AFC
English League Two
18.04.22	Rochdale - Hartlepool United	2:1 ✺
15.04.22	Stevenage Borough - Rochdale	1:0 ✺
09.04.22	Rochdale - Walsall	1:0 ✺
02.04.22	Rochdale - Swindon Town	0:0 ✺
29.03.22	Rochdale - Carlisle United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
27.11.21	Rochdale - Exeter City	1:1
22.02.14	Exeter City - Rochdale	0:1
23.11.13	Rochdale - Exeter City	3:1
01.04.13	Exeter City - Rochdale	1:2
08.12.12	Rochdale - Exeter City	2:3
English League One
14.04.12	Rochdale - Exeter City	N/A

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