Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 17

Date: 31 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustin (UNSA) (Arequipa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Movistar TV App
Usa	Fanatiz


	FBC Melgar		Alianza Atlético

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.8	5.5	Watch
	1.53	3.7	5.25
	1.58	3.8	5.65	Watch
	1.55	3.88	5.67
	1.54	4.14	5.57	Watch
	1.62	3.5	5.5
	1.57	3.82	5.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.49)	3.81 ↓ (4.06)	5.55 ↓ (6.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
59.1%

Draw
24.3%

Alianza Atlético
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.6%

23%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.2%

22.4%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Alianza Atlético has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for FBC Melgar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Atlético than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Cabezudo J. (G) 33. Lazo M. 23. Escobar J. 5. Deneumostier A. 45. Zegarra M. 6. Salas J. 20. Bernaola G. 16. Caceres J. 11. Vidales J. 10. Quagliata N. 9. Cuesta B. (C)	1. Hermoza E. (G) 25. Guzman W. 4. Villegas J. C. 6. Lujan J. 24. Gordillo A. 8. Flores F. 10. Diaz G. 15. Lupu H. (C) 22. del Castillo J. 23. Munoz A. 20. Perez J.
Substitutes
7. Bordacahar C. 12. Caceda C. (G) 80. D'Arrigo J. 39. Doy C. 14. Gamero Y. 8. Guzman L. 90. Jesus Alcantar 36. Nunez P. 77. Zanelatto F.	37. Delgado J. 16. Fernandez S. 19. Mendieta J. 21. Perleche E. 95. Prieto D. (G) 9. Robaldo V. 2. Suarez R. 77. Valladolid C.
Coaches
Balta V.	Urciuoli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Villegas J. C. ↓, Perleche E. ↑,
44', 0 - 1, Escobar J. (Own goal),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Caceres J. ↓, Bordacahar C. ↑,
46', Zegarra M. ↓, D'Arrigo J. ↑,
59', Lujan J. ↓, Suarez R. ↑,
59', del Castillo J. ↓, Robaldo V. ↑,
59', Bernaola G. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Cuesta B. ⚽, Guzman L. (A),
69', Suarez R. 🟨,
78', Perez J. ↓, Fernandez S. ↑,
78', Flores F. ↓, Valladolid C. ↑,
80', Escobar J. ↓, Jesus Alcantar ↑,
84', Lupu H. 🟨,
90', 2 - 1, Vidales J. ⚽, Quagliata N. (A),
90+1', Vidales J. 🟨,
90+2', Hermoza E. 🟨,
90+3', 3 - 1, Vidales J. ⚽, Cuesta B. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Melgar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Alianza Atlético has had a series of away games.

In this match, Melgar is the team to beat.

There will not play in Melgar: Orzan H. (Injury)

There are questionable in Melgar: Cabanillas N. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Alianza Atlético: Coronel F. (Injury) Larios Saavedra G. A. (Knee Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:19. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Melgar won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 1.8:0.8).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	FBC Melgar	11	5	4	2	18:11	7	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
22.05.26	Juan Pablo II College - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
16.05.26	FBC Melgar - Sport Huancayo	4:1 ✺
10.05.26	Comerciantes Unidos - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	2:0 ✺
27.04.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - FBC Melgar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TWTWL
- Alianza Atlético
Copa Sudamericana
28.05.26	Tigre - Alianza Atlético	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
24.05.26	Alianza Atlético - Cajamarca	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
21.05.26	Deportivo Macará - Alianza Atlético	0:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
16.05.26	Juan Pablo II College - Alianza Atlético	0:2 ✺
11.05.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Atlético	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
01.08.25	Alianza Atlético - FBC Melgar	0:0
23.02.25	FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético	2:1
25.07.24	Alianza Atlético - FBC Melgar	3:1
10.02.24	FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético	1:0
15.09.23	FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético	4:0
24.04.23	Alianza Atlético - FBC Melgar	3:3
30.10.22	FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético	0:1

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