Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 14

Date: 14 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi (Arequipa)

Referee: Palomino M. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	FBC Melgar		Alianza Universidad de Huánuco

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.75	8.5	Watch
				Watch
	1.33	4.8	8.5	Watch
	1.34	5.04	8.26
	1.10	9.05	20.05	Watch
	1.36	4.79	8.16	Watch
	1.3	4.7	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.4)	5.52 ↑ (4.5)	10.25 ↑ (7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
73.5%

Draw
17.2%

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco
9.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.2%

20.6%

13.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.9%

19.8%

12.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in FBC Melgar's performance.

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Universidad de Huánuco than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

FBC Melgar - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Alianza Universidad will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Melgar (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Caceda C. (G) 4. Ramos E. 5. Deneumostier A. 6. Gonzalez L. 13. Llontop M. 15. Orzan H. (C) 7. Bordacahar C. 24. Tandazo W. 18. Quagliata N. 99. D'Arrigo J. 14. Vidales J.	31. Espinoza Gomes I. (G) 26. Iraola G. 66. Fuentes P. 19. Mendieta J. 7. Gomez A. 5. Ascues C. 33. Otavio Gut 29. Escobar J. 11. Vasquez Ortega E. O. 8. Lliuya M. 17. Mena Y. (C)
Substitutes
2. Barrios P. 20. Bernaola G. 1. Farro R. (G) 8. Guzman L. 33. Lazo M. 10. Martinez T. 43. Munoz D. 19. Rodriguez G. 40. Yabiku R.	3. Ampuero A. 88. Aubert E. 22. Campodonico R. 20. Canela Torres J. J. 9. Martinez D. 28. Perleche A. 15. Ramirez N. 38. Sernaque J. 1. Ynamine P. (G)
Coaches
Reynoso J.	Mosquera R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Vidales J. ⚽, Quagliata N. (A),
38', 2 - 0, Ramos E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', 2 - 1, Ascues C. ⚽,
61', Ascues C. ↓, Aubert E. ↑,
66', Vidales J. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
72', Quagliata N. ↓, Martinez T. ↑,
72', Llontop M. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
78', Iraola G. ↓, Campodonico R. ↑,
78', Escobar J. ↓, Canela Torres J. J. ↑,
80', Bordacahar C. ↓, Lazo M. ↑,
80', D'Arrigo J. ↓, Barrios P. ↑,
81', Mendieta J. ↓, Perleche A. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 and 14).

Melgar is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Alianza Universidad has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Melgar is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Melgar: Cuesta B. (Red Card)

There will not play in Alianza Universidad: Gomez R. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:3. (average 1.6:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Melgar won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:0. (average 2:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
05.10.25	Atlético Grau - FBC Melgar	0:0 ✺
02.10.25	FBC Melgar - Cienciano	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Comerciantes Unidos - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	FBC Melgar - Los Chankas	6:1 ✺
18.09.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TWTWT
- Alianza Universidad de Huánuco
Peruvian Liga 1
05.10.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
30.09.25	Sport Huancayo - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	5:1 ✺
26.09.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Sport Boys	2:3 ✺
18.09.25	Atlético Grau - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Cienciano	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
23.05.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - FBC Melgar	1:1
09.08.21	FBC Melgar - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	3:0
28.09.20	FBC Melgar - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	1:0
06.10.19	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - FBC Melgar	2:1
20.04.19	FBC Melgar - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	2:0

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