Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 16

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas (Moreira de Conegos)

Referee: Guelho S. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	TVI


	Moreirense		Tondela

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	3.3
	2.1	3.25	3.4
	2.28	3.05	3.25
	2.28	3.17	3.35	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3.25
	2.39	3.12	3.43	Watch
	2.28	3	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.28)	3.07 ↓ (3.18)	3.34 ↑ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moreirense
41.4%

Draw
30.6%

Tondela
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

29.7%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Moreirense have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.1%	2.6%	5.3%

Moreirense - Tondela Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Moreirense will win (votes: 35 - 92.1%). Tondela will win (votes: 2 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 2.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moreirense: 83.5% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Moreirense (1.42) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Tondela (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Tondela (2.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Moreirense will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Moreirense (votes: 12 - 85.7%). Tondela (votes: 2 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Caio (C) 2. Travassos 26. Maracas 3. Michel 17. Martinez A. 21. Rodri 25. Assis A. 11. Alanzinho 7. Teguia C. 9. Semedo L. 10. Kiko Bondoso	31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto (C) 4. Marques C. 20. Medina B. 60. Maviram E. 97. Cicero 32. Rodriguez J. 79. Felix H. 10. Hodge J. 7. Pedro Maranhao 29. Siebatcheu J.
Substitutes
66. Batista G. 20. Bernardo 13. Ferreira A. (G) 30. Gower J. 27. Kiko 78. Landerson 44. Marcelo 8. Stjepanovic M. 99. Yan Maranhao	5. Afonso J. 90. Aiko M. 6. Ceitil A. 27. Conceicao R. 19. Rodrigues A. 15. Sithole S. 1. Souza G. (G) 8. Tavares H.
Coaches
Costa V.	Bacci C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Hodge J. 🟨,
42', Assis A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Teguia C. ↓, Landerson ↑,
62', 1 - 0, Maracas ⚽, Alanzinho (A),
67', Hodge J. ↓, Aiko M. ↑,
69', Assis A. ↓, Stjepanovic M. ↑,
69', Semedo L. ↓, Yan Maranhao ↑,
76', Michel ↓, Marcelo ↑,
76', Kiko Bondoso ↓, Batista G. ↑,
77', Rodriguez J. ↓, Rodrigues A. ↑,
77', Felix H. ↓, Sithole S. ↑,
82', Cicero ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
82', Bebeto ↓, Conceicao R. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 7 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Moreirense will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Moreirense: Jorquera Romero J. (Ankle Injury) Pinto D. (Yellow Cards) Sousa V. (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Moreirense: Ofori L. (Inactive) Yan Maranhao (Muscle Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:21. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Moreirense won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.3:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	8:15	-7	8

Last Results with these Odds

Moreirense - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 41.38%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
03.01.26	AVS - Moreirense	0:2 ✺
20.12.25	Estrela da Amadora - Moreirense	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Moreirense - Benfica	0:4 ✺
07.12.25	Estoril Praia - Moreirense	3:3 ✺
29.11.25	Moreirense - Famalicão	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WTLTT
- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
03.01.26	Tondela - Arouca	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Tondela - Casa Pia	1:2 ✺
15.12.25	Nacional - Tondela	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Tondela - Porto	0:2 ✺
29.11.25	Gil Vicente - Tondela	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
29.04.23	Moreirense - Tondela	2:1
14.11.22	Tondela - Moreirense	1:1
Liga Portugal
16.04.22	Moreirense - Tondela	2:0
03.01.22	Tondela - Moreirense	2:1
17.04.21	Moreirense - Tondela	2:3
19.12.20	Tondela - Moreirense	0:0
26.07.20	Moreirense - Tondela	1:2

Moreirense - Tondela: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide