Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 11 May 2023, Thursday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Belgium	VOOsport
Bulgaria	Ring
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport
Italy	Sky Sport
Netherlands	ESPN
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Fiorentina		Basel

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	9.5
	1.34	5.25	8
	1.34	5.1	8.5
	1.36	5	8
	1.34	5.38	9.21
	1.33	5.35	8.8
	1.36	5.2	8.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.48)	5.18 ↑ (4.47)	8.69 ↑ (6.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
70.7%

Draw
18.3%

Basel
10.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.9%

21.1%

15%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67%

22.1%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fiorentina's performance.

Basel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Basel than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.2%	4.6%	9.2%

Fiorentina - Basel Predictions

Users Predictions: Fiorentina will win (56 of 65 users predict this - 86.15%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.75% – 94.55%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

1st leg.

Fiorentina has already of knockout phase, already of round of 16, already of qtrs, already of semis, a good chance of final (88%), a chance of win league (47%).

Basel has already of knockout phase, already of round of 16, already of qtrs, already of semis, a small chance of final (12%), a very small chance of win league (3%).

This event has quality 54, very big importance 100, big match rating 77. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Basel could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Fiorentina is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Milenkovic N. (Yellow Cards) Sirigu S. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Basel: Comas A. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Basel: Calafiori R. (Injury) Frei F. (Back Injury) Pelmard A. (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Fiorentina won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Fiorentina won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
07.05.23	Napoli - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
03.05.23	Salernitana - Fiorentina	3:3 ✺
30.04.23	Fiorentina - Sampdoria	5:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
27.04.23	Fiorentina - Cremonese	0:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
23.04.23	Monza - Fiorentina	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTWTL
- FC Basel
Swiss Super League
07.05.23	Basel - Zürich	0:2 ✺
30.04.23	Winterthur - Basel	1:4 ✺
27.04.23	Sion - Basel	1:2 ✺
23.04.23	Basel - Luzern	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
20.04.23	Nice - Basel	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
26.11.15	Basel - Fiorentina	2:2
17.09.15	Fiorentina - Basel	1:2

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