Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 23

Date: 23 December 2023, Saturday

Location: Fratton Park (Portsmouth)

Referee: Nield T. (Eng)


	Portsmouth		Fleetwood Town

	1	X	2
	1.36	5	9.5
	1.35	5	7.75
	1.35	5	8.5
	1.35	5.37	8.62
	1.36	5.37	8.63
	1.3	5	8.5
	1.33	5.15	8.6	Watch
	1.35	5	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.49)	5.11 ↑ (4.3)	8.51 ↑ (6.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
70.4%

Draw
18.5%

Fleetwood Town
11.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.1%

21.9%

15%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.6%

21.4%

14.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portsmouth's performance.

Fleetwood Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Portsmouth that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fleetwood Town than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	8.3%	4.2%

Portsmouth - Fleetwood Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Portsmouth will win (21 of 24 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.27% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Norris W. (G) 17. Rafferty J. 20. Raggett S. 18. Shaughnessy C. 21. Sparkes J. 16. Morrell J. 7. Pack M. (C) 32. Lane P. 8. Robertson A. 25. Kamara A. 9. Bishop C.	13. Lynch J. (G) 5. Lawal B. 25. Teale C. 16. Heneghan B. (C) 32. Earl J. 2. Johnston C. 51. Asamoah M. 4. Wiredu B. 22. Dolan C. 44. Patterson P. 9. Stockley J.
Substitutes
24. Devlin T. 15. Saydee C. 31. Schofield R. (G) 10. Scully A. 4. Towler R. 11. Whyte G. 19. Yengi K.	21. Hayes C. 18. Holgate H. 38. Johnson W. 14. Marriott J. 30. McMullan S. (G) 3. Montgomery A. 7. Tshimanga K.
Coaches
Mousinho J.	Johnson L.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Portsmouth won 3.

Portsmouth is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Fleetwood has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Portsmouth could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Fleetwood have a series of guest games.

In this match Portsmouth is the unquestionable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Portsmouth to win the game is with odds 1.38.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Portsmouth won 8 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 25-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Portsmouth won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English EFL Trophy
19.12.23	Portsmouth - AFC Wimbledon	2:5 ✺
English League One
16.12.23	Shrewsbury Town - Portsmouth	0:3 ✺
11.12.23	Portsmouth - Bolton Wanderers	2:0 ✺
02.12.23	Northampton Town - Portsmouth	0:3 ✺
28.11.23	Burton Albion - Portsmouth	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWWWW
- Fleetwood Town
English League One
16.12.23	Fleetwood Town - Peterborough United	0:1 ✺
09.12.23	Northampton Town - Fleetwood Town	3:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
05.12.23	Derby County - Fleetwood Town	3:0 ✺
English FA Cup
02.12.23	Cambridge United - Fleetwood Town	4:0 ✺
English League One
28.11.23	Wigan Athletic - Fleetwood Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
24.01.23	Fleetwood Town - Portsmouth	0:2
08.10.22	Portsmouth - Fleetwood Town	1:1
26.02.22	Portsmouth - Fleetwood Town	3:3
07.08.21	Fleetwood Town - Portsmouth	0:1
16.01.21	Fleetwood Town - Portsmouth	0:1
15.12.20	Portsmouth - Fleetwood Town	0:0
10.03.20	Portsmouth - Fleetwood Town	2:2

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