Match Info

CANADA: Championship - Semi-finals

Date: 10 July 2024, Wednesday

Location: Tim Hortons Field (Hamilton, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	FuboTV, OneSoccer
Puerto-rico	Fox Sports 2
Usa	Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports 2, Foxsports.com, FuboTV


	Forge		Toronto FC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.75	3.4	1.78
	4	3.6	1.75	Watch
	4.05	3.68	1.81
	3.85	3.61	1.89	Watch
	3.6	3.6	1.75
	3.76	3.61	1.94	Watch
	3.85	3.5	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.84 ↑ (3.35)	3.57 ↓ (3.6)	1.82 ↓ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Forge
23.9%

Draw
25.7%

Toronto FC
50.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.7%

24.8%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.6%

23.8%

50.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Forge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Toronto FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forge than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto FC than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Forge - Toronto FC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Kalongo C. (G) 2. Duncan M. 13. Achinioti-Jonsson A. 23. Metusala G. 81. Owolabi-Belewu M. 10. Bekker K. (C) 21. Hojabrpour A. 7. Choiniere D. 19. Borges T. 39. Badibanga B. 20. Poku K.	90. Gavran L. (G) 27. O'Neill S. 6. Mabika A. 15. Gomis N. 19. Franklin K. 47. Thompson K. 20. Flores D. 11. Etienne D. 28. Petretta R. 10. Bernardeschi F. (C) 24. Insigne L.
Substitutes
11. Ampomah N. 9. Hamilton J. 22. Jensen N. 64. Kane K. 16. Koleilat J. (G) 4. Samuel D. 88. Schiavoni M.	29. Kerr D. 5. Long K. 8. Longstaff M. 7. Marshall-Rutty J. 99. Owusu P. 18. Ranjitsingh G. (G) 17. Rosted S.
Coaches
Smyrniotis B.	Herdman J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Badibanga B. ⚽,
14', 2 - 0, Poku K. ⚽, Choiniere D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', O'Neill S. ↓, Longstaff M. ↑,
46', Mabika A. ↓, Owusu P. ↑,
66', Kalongo C. 🟨,
66', Insigne L. 🟨,
68', Flores D. ↓, Long K. ↑,
72', Borges T. ↓, Jensen N. ↑,
78', Bernardeschi F. ↓, Kerr D. ↑,
78', Franklin K. ↓, Marshall-Rutty J. ↑,
79', Duncan M. ↓, Samuel D. ↑,
80', Poku K. ↓, Ampomah N. ↑,
80', Bekker K. ↓, Hamilton J. ↑,
88', 2 - 1, Owusu P. ⚽, Etienne D. (A),
90+1', Choiniere D. ↓, Kane K. ↑,
90+4', Long K. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Forge is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Toronto has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Toronto could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Forge won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Forge won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Forge FC
Canadian Premier League
05.07.24	Forge - Vancouver FC	3:3 ✺
28.06.24	Atlético Ottawa - Forge	4:3 ✺
23.06.24	Forge - Valour	2:1 ✺
15.06.24	HFX Wanderers - Forge	2:2 ✺
08.06.24	Cavalry - Forge	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TLWTL
- Toronto FC
MLS
06.07.24	Columbus Crew - Toronto FC	4:0 ✺
03.07.24	Toronto FC - Orlando City	1:2 ✺
29.06.24	Atlanta United - Toronto FC	2:1 ✺
22.06.24	New York Red Bulls - Toronto FC	3:0 ✺
19.06.24	Toronto FC - Nashville SC	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Canadian Championship
04.06.22	Forge - Toronto FC	1:2 penalties

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