Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 21

Date: 28 February 2023, Tuesday

Location: EnviroVent Stadium (Harrogate)

Referee: Parsons T. (Eng)


	Harrogate Town		Northampton Town

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.25	2.1
	3.4	3.1	2.15
	3.6	3.2	2.1
	3	3.25	2.29
	3.79	3.22	2.18
	3.6	3.2	2.1
	3.62	3.25	2.11	Watch
	3.4	3.1	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↑ (2.87)	3.2 ↑ (3.12)	2.14 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Harrogate Town
26.8%

Draw
29.4%

Northampton Town
43.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

29.6%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

29.1%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Harrogate Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Harrogate Town's form might have worsened.

Northampton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Northampton Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Harrogate Town than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4%	8%	88%

Harrogate Town - Northampton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 75 users predict this event. Harrogate will win (votes: 3 - 4%). Northampton will win (votes: 66 - 88%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Northampton: 80.6% – 95.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).

Harrogate has the most likely position - 21 (11.64%), has project points - 49, has currently - 19, has a small chance of relegated (15%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Northampton has the most likely position - 2 (23.54%), has project points - 83, has currently - 39, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (32%), has a good chance of promoted (63%), has a small chance of win league (15%).

This event has small quality 12, importance 44, small match rating 28. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Harrogate could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Harrogate won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Harrogate won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Harrogate Town
English League Two
25.02.23	Swindon Town - Harrogate Town	3:0 ✺
21.02.23	Grimsby Town - Harrogate Town	0:0 ✺
18.02.23	Harrogate Town - Crewe Alexandra	2:2 ✺
14.02.23	Salford City - Harrogate Town	1:1 ✺
11.02.23	Harrogate Town - Stockport County	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LTTTL
- Northampton Town
English League Two
25.02.23	Colchester United - Northampton Town	0:1 ✺
18.02.23	Northampton Town - Grimsby Town	1:2 ✺
14.02.23	Northampton Town - AFC Wimbledon	0:0 ✺
11.02.23	Rochdale - Northampton Town	1:1 ✺
04.02.23	Northampton Town - Walsall	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
18.04.22	Northampton Town - Harrogate Town	3:0
11.12.21	Harrogate Town - Northampton Town	1:2

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