Match Info

National League - Round 43

Date: 6 April 2026, Monday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hartlepool United		Rochdale

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.5	1.75
	4.25	3.6	1.75	Watch
	4.78	3.48	1.79
	4.06	3.72	1.8	Watch
	4.2	3.3	1.8
	4.41	3.56	1.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.34 ↑ (3.84)	3.53 (3.53)	1.78 ↓ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
21.4%

Draw
26.3%

Rochdale
52.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.1%

26.3%

49.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.3%

26.1%

49.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Rochdale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Hartlepool United - Rochdale Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Hartlepool will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Rochdale will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rochdale (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Hayes N. (G) 2. Benn J. 5. Kouogun M. 37. Sinclair T. 3. John C. 10. Campbell A. 14. Sheron N. (C) 15. Hunter J. 18. Miley J. 28. Daly M. 19. Reid A.	1. Whatmuff O. (G) 2. Gordon K. 6. Ebanks-Landell E. (C) 25. Perry C. 8. Gilmour H. 4. East R. 7. Allarakhia T. 9. Dieseruvwe E. 22. Moss D. 10. Rodney D. 21. McBride C.
Substitutes
35. Caton C. 8. Ferguson N. 24. Jay Smith-Sway 27. Oliver V. 4. Parkes T. 40. Smith A. (G) 38. Walker B.	14. Adebayo-Rowling T. 35. Baptiste A. 36. Francis E. 12. Hannant L. 40. Henderson I. 16. Pettit C. 38. Smith T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Gilmour H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Allarakhia T. ↓, Adebayo-Rowling T. ↑,
62', Gilmour H. ↓, Pettit C. ↑,
62', McBride C. ↓, Henderson I. ↑,
71', Rodney D. ↓, Smith T. ↑,
71', Moss D. ↓, Hannant L. ↑,
79', Campbell A. ↓, Caton C. ↑,
79', Miley J. ↓, Jay Smith-Sway ↑,
83', Reid A. ↓, Oliver V. ↑,
85', Hannant L. 🟨,
87', Daly M. 🟨,
90', Henderson I. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 9 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hartlepool won 1.

Hartlepool is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Rochdale has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Rochdale may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Hartlepool has had a series of away games.

In this match, Rochdale is the team to beat.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Hartlepool won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:25. (average 1.2:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Hartlepool won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 1.2:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	Hartlepool	13	4	0	9	12:19	-7	12

Last Results with these Odds

Rochdale - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 49.59%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English National League
03.04.26	Scunthorpe United - Hartlepool United	0:0 ✺
31.03.26	Wealdstone - Hartlepool United	7:0 ✺
25.03.26	Morecambe - Hartlepool United	2:3 ✺
21.03.26	Hartlepool United - Eastleigh	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Truro City - Hartlepool United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TLWWW
- Rochdale AFC
English National League
03.04.26	Rochdale - Morecambe	2:4 ✺
28.03.26	Sutton United - Rochdale	1:2 ✺
25.03.26	Scunthorpe United - Rochdale	2:2 ✺
21.03.26	Rochdale - Tamworth	3:2 ✺
17.03.26	Southend United - Rochdale	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
30.12.25	Rochdale - Hartlepool United	1:2
26.04.25	Rochdale - Hartlepool United	5:1
24.09.24	Hartlepool United - Rochdale	0:3
01.04.24	Rochdale - Hartlepool United	1:1
28.10.23	Hartlepool United - Rochdale	2:3
English League Two
21.01.23	Hartlepool United - Rochdale	2:0
26.12.22	Rochdale - Hartlepool United	1:2

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