Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 12

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday

Location: AFAS Trainingscomplex (Wijdewormer)

Referee: Ordelmans J. (Ned)


	Jong AZ Alkmaar		Helmond Sport

	1	X	2
	1.81	4.2	3.5	Watch
	1.85	3.80	3.40
	1.85	3.85	3.55	Watch
	1.88	4.13	3.68
	1.84	4.13	3.6	Watch
	1.82	4	3.6
	1.82	3.9	3.65	Watch
	1.85	3.85	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.65)	3.98 ↓ (4.42)	3.54 ↓ (4.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jong AZ Alkmaar
50.5%

Draw
23.3%

Helmond Sport
26.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.7%

21.2%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

18.9%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jong AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jong AZ Alkmaar's form might have worsened.

Helmond Sport has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

The ML Model estimate for Jong AZ Alkmaar aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Helmond Sport than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Jong AZ Alkmaar - Helmond Sport Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Jong AZ will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Helmond Sport will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Helmond Sport (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 11th and 19th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jong AZ won 1.

Jong AZ has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Helmond Sport has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Jong AZ is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Jong AZ has recorded 6 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 28:31 (averaging 1.6:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Jong AZ against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with 16:14 goals (averaging 1.8:1.6 per game).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Jong AZ	11	4	2	5	26:22	4	14
19	Helmond	11	2	3	6	16:21	-5	9

Last Results with these Odds

Helmond Sport - the odds 4.23 are the expected chance of winning is 22.12%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jong AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eerste Divisie
16.10.26	VVV-Venlo - Jong AZ Alkmaar	4:4 ✺
09.10.26	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Den Bosch	0:1 ✺
18.09.26	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Volendam	4:1 ✺
14.09.26	Jong PSV - Jong AZ Alkmaar	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	Heracles Almelo - Jong AZ Alkmaar	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TLWTL
- Helmond Sport
Dutch Eerste Divisie
16.10.26	Helmond Sport - NAC Breda	0:2 ✺
09.10.26	FC Oss - Helmond Sport	3:1 ✺
02.10.26	Helmond Sport - Heracles Almelo	2:2 ✺
26.09.26	MVV Maastricht - Helmond Sport	2:0 ✺
18.09.26	Den Bosch - Helmond Sport	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
03.04.26	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Helmond Sport	2:0
17.10.25	Helmond Sport - Jong AZ Alkmaar	4:2
26.01.25	Helmond Sport - Jong AZ Alkmaar	2:1
18.10.24	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Helmond Sport	2:3
11.03.24	Helmond Sport - Jong AZ Alkmaar	3:1
10.11.23	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Helmond Sport	2:1
23.01.23	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Helmond Sport	1:1

Jong AZ Alkmaar - Helmond Sport: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide