Match Info

Date: 22 December 2021, Wednesday


	Heracles Almelo		Cambuur

	1	X	2
	1.8	4	4	Watch
	1.77	3.9	4.2
	1.83	3.7	4.25	Watch
	1.84	3.65	3.9
	1.87	3.89	4.21
	1.83	3.6	4	Watch
	1.85	3.9	3.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.11)	3.81 ↑ (3.68)	4.07 ↑ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heracles Almelo
51.8%

Draw
24.9%

Cambuur
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

25.6%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

17.6%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Heracles Almelo's performance.

Cambuur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cambuur might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (-21.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Heracles Almelo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cambuur than the current prediction. (+20%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cambuur could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Heracles Almelo - Cambuur Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 8).

Heracles has the most likely position - 12 (13.32%), has project points - 38, has currently - 17, has a small chance of relegated (11%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Cambuur has the most likely position - 9 (17.93%), has project points - 45, has currently - 27, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Heracles is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Cambuur is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Heracles could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Heracles will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Heracles won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 11-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Heracles won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Heracles Almelo
Dutch Eredivisie
18.12.21	Heracles Almelo - Groningen	4:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
15.12.21	AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo	4:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
12.12.21	Vitesse - Heracles Almelo	2:1 ✺
04.12.21	Heracles Almelo - Heerenveen	0:1 ✺
01.12.21	Feyenoord - Heracles Almelo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 WLLLL
- Leeuwarden Cambuur
Dutch Eredivisie
19.12.21	Cambuur - Heerenveen	1:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
16.12.21	Cambuur - NEC Nijmegen	1:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
10.12.21	Willem II - Cambuur	1:3 ✺
04.12.21	Cambuur - Vitesse	1:6 ✺
26.11.21	NEC Nijmegen - Cambuur	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
23.09.21	Cambuur - Heracles Almelo	2:1
13.03.16	Heracles Almelo - Cambuur	3:1
22.08.15	Cambuur - Heracles Almelo	1:6
28.02.15	Cambuur - Heracles Almelo	1:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
16.12.14	Heracles Almelo - Cambuur	0:3
Dutch Eredivisie
22.08.14	Heracles Almelo - Cambuur	0:1
09.02.14	Heracles Almelo - Cambuur	1:1

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