Match Info

NETHERLANDS: EERSTE DIVISIE - ROUND 38

Date: 19 May 2023, Friday

Location: Erve Asito (Almelo)

Referee: Kamphuis J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN


	Heracles Almelo		Jong Ajax

	1	X	2
	1.25	7.5	8.5	Watch
	1.24	6.5	7.75
	1.24	6.75	8.5
	1.25	7.38	9.37
	1.22	5.8	9	Watch
	1.25	6.75	9.1	Watch
	1.24	6.8	8.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.32)	6.78 ↑ (6.01)	8.63 ↑ (7.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heracles Almelo
75.4%

Draw
13.8%

Jong Ajax
10.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.1%

15.6%

13.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.5%

14.9%

12.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Jong Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jong Ajax than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	0%	7.1%

Heracles Almelo - Jong Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: Heracles Almelo will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:1

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Preview

Heracles in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Jong Ajax is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Heracles is certain favorite.

There will not play in Jong Ajax: Fitz-Jim K. (Ankle Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Heracles won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Heracles won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Heracles Almelo
Dutch Eerste Divisie
12.05.23	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	0:3 ✺
05.05.23	Dordrecht - Heracles Almelo	1:3 ✺
28.04.23	Heracles Almelo - Jong PSV	3:0 ✺
21.04.23	Helmond Sport - Heracles Almelo	0:1 ✺
14.04.23	Heracles Almelo - Roda	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWWW
- Jong Ajax
Dutch Eerste Divisie
12.05.23	Jong Ajax - Jong AZ Alkmaar	1:2 ✺
08.05.23	Jong Ajax - ADO Den Haag	4:2 ✺
28.04.23	VVV-Venlo - Jong Ajax	0:1 ✺
24.04.23	Jong Utrecht - Jong Ajax	1:0 ✺
17.04.23	Jong Ajax - Jong PSV	5:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
05.09.22	Jong Ajax - Heracles Almelo	4:0
Club Friendly
15.07.18	Heracles Almelo - Jong Ajax	3:1

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