Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 26

Date: 6 March 2026, Friday

Location: Asito Stadium (Almelo)

Referee: van der Laan J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2


	Heracles Almelo		Utrecht

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.5	2.15	Watch
	3.2	3.55	2.18
	3.31	3.58	2.21
	3.27	3.59	2.13	Watch
	3.1	3.25	2.15
	3.4	3.64	2.17	Watch
	3.35	3.5	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↓ (3.35)	3.52 ↑ (3.4)	2.16 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heracles Almelo
29.2%

Draw
26.9%

Utrecht
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.8%

27.4%

44.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

27.2%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Utrecht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Utrecht than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.2%	9.1%	75.8%

Heracles Almelo - Utrecht Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Heracles will win (votes: 5 - 15.2%). Utrecht will win (votes: 25 - 75.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Utrecht: 61.2% – 90.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Heracles (2.31) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Heracles (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Heracles (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Utrecht will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Heracles (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Utrecht (votes: 10 - 76.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pasveer R. (G) 3. Wieckhoff J. 18. Van Hoorenbeeck A. 4. Mirani D. (C) 24. Mesik I. 13. Zamburek J. 20. Bozinovski R. 14. Ahlstrand E. 70. Hrustic A. 9. Unuvar N. 25. Zeefuik L.	1. Barkas V. (G) 40. Didden M. 3. van der Hoorn M. 24. Viergever N. (C) 16. El Karouani S. 27. Engwanda A. 21. Zechiel G. 77. Alarcon A. 20. de Wit D. 10. Cathline Y. 18. Stepanov A.
Substitutes
2. Benita M. 10. Bruns T. 6. Cestic S. 41. Hamamioglu T. 16. Jansink T. (G) 7. Limbombe B. 30. Mantel R. (G) 32. Scheperman S. 5. van der Kust D. 17. van Gilst T.	5. Adiele E. 38. Agougil O. 15. Blake A. 8. Bozdogan C. 25. Brouwer M. (G) 31. Eppink M. (G) 2. Horemans S. 11. Karlsson J. 9. Min D. 22. Rodriguez M. 53. Viereck N.
Coaches
Faber E.	Jans R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Van Hoorenbeeck A. 🟨,
61', Unuvar N. ↓, van Gilst T. ↑,
62', Zamburek J. ↓, Scheperman S. ↑,
62', Ahlstrand E. ↓, Benita M. ↑,
68', Alarcon A. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
73', Cathline Y. ↓, Karlsson J. ↑,
73', Stepanov A. ↓, Min D. ↑,
78', Bozinovski R. ↓, Bruns T. ↑,
81', Wieckhoff J. ↓, Limbombe B. ↑,
90', van der Hoorn M. ↓, Horemans S. ↑,
90+5', Viergever N. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 1.

Heracles has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Utrecht is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Utrecht might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Heracles: Engels M. (Knee Injury) Reine-Adelaide J. (Knee Injury) de Keijzer F. (Inactive)

There will not play in Utrecht: Eerdhuijzen M. (Thigh Injury) Jensen V. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Heracles: Borges Sanches Y. (Illness)

There are questionable in Utrecht: Horemans S. (Calf Injury) Vesterlund N. (Groin Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 19:36. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Heracles won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:18. (average 1.5:1.8).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

Heracles: 35.06%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11:24	-13	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Heracles Almelo
Dutch Eredivisie
28.02.26	Heracles Almelo - PSV Eindhoven	1:3 ✺
22.02.26	Go Ahead Eagles - Heracles Almelo	4:0 ✺
14.02.26	Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	NEC Nijmegen - Heracles Almelo	4:1 ✺
01.02.26	Heracles Almelo - Fortuna Sittard	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLLW
- FC Utrecht
Dutch Eredivisie
01.03.26	Utrecht - AZ Alkmaar	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Utrecht - Zwolle	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Groningen - Utrecht	1:2 ✺
11.02.26	NEC Nijmegen - Utrecht	1:3 ✺
08.02.26	Utrecht - Feyenoord	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
10.08.25	Utrecht - Heracles Almelo	4:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
04.02.25	Heracles Almelo - Utrecht	2:0
Dutch Eredivisie
24.01.25	Heracles Almelo - Utrecht	1:1
08.11.24	Utrecht - Heracles Almelo	1:0
23.02.24	Utrecht - Heracles Almelo	1:0
16.09.23	Heracles Almelo - Utrecht	1:3
11.02.22	Heracles Almelo - Utrecht	1:0

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