Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 28

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: PreZero Arena (Sinsheim) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Focus
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 5
Argentina	10:30	Disney+
Australia	00:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:30	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	16:30	Play Diema Xtra
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	10:30	Disney+
China	21:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	08:30	Disney+
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 5
Czech Republic	15:30	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, Free
Germany	15:30	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, Sky Sport Bundesliga 6, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 5
Hong Kong	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	13:30	Viaplay
India	19:00	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	20:30	K-Vision
Japan	22:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	20:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	07:30	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	21:30	Premier Sports 3
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	02:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	15:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	15:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	18:30	Tapmad
Peru	08:30	Disney+
Philippines	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	15:30	Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	14:30	DAZN / App
Russia	16:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	16:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	15:30	Nova Sport 5, Voyo
South Korea	22:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
Thailand	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Sport 2
Turkey	16:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Uruguay	10:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN USA, ESPN+
Venezuela	09:30	Disney+
Vietnam	20:30	TV 360
International	13:30	Onefootball


	Hoffenheim		Mainz

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.9	4.75	Watch
	1.7	3.95	4.7	Watch
	1.74	4.05	5.02
	1.73	3.96	4.61	Watch
	1.7	3.7	4.5	Watch
	1.74	3.99	4.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 (1.72)	3.93 ↓ (4.21)	4.74 ↑ (4.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hoffenheim
55.5%

Draw
24.3%

Mainz
20.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.2%

22.6%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.5%

23.6%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.9%	22.9%	14.3%

Hoffenheim - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Hoffenheim will win (votes: 22 - 62.9%). Mainz will win (votes: 5 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 22.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hoffenheim: 46.9% – 78.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Hoffenheim (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Hoffenheim (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Mainz (3.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hoffenheim will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Hoffenheim (votes: 9 - 90%). Mainz (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baumann O. (C) 34. Coufal V. 5. Kabak O. 21. Hajdari A. 13. Bernardo 18. Burger W. 22. Prass A. 6. Promel G. 29. Toure B. 11. Asllani F. 19. Lemperle T.	33. Batz D. (G) 21. da Costa D. 4. Posch S. 31. Kohr D. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 6. Sano K. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 2. Mwene P. 23. Becker S. 20. Tietz P.
Substitutes
25. Akpoguma K. 7. Avdullahu L. 9. Bebou I. 20. Campbell C. 10. Damar M. 2. Hranac R. 27. Kramaric A. 33. Moerstedt M. 37. Philipp L. (G)	14. Boving W. 24. Kawasaki S. 5. Leitsch M. 15. Maloney L. 48. Potulski K. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N.
Coaches
Ilzer C.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', Kohr D. 🟨,
13', 0 - 1, Tietz P. ⚽, Mwene P. (A),
23', 1 - 1, Asllani F. ⚽, Toure B. (A),
37', Kohr D. ↓, Potulski K. ↑,
45', Kabak O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Widmer S. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
47', Coufal V. 🟨,
61', Coufal V. ↓, Avdullahu L. ↑,
61', Asllani F. ↓, Kramaric A. ↑,
75', Becker S. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
76', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,
79', 1 - 2, Tietz P. ⚽,
79', Burger W. 🟨,
80', Baumann O. 🟨,
84', Prass A. ↓, Bebou I. ↑,
87', Lemperle T. ↓, Moerstedt M. ↑,
87', Nebel P. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 1.

Hoffenheim has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mainz is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Hoffenheim is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Gendrey V. (Ankle Injury) Hlozek A. (Calf Injury) Machida K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Amiri N. (Heel Injury) Bell S. (Lacking Match Fitness) Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hanche-Olsen A. (Muscle Injury) Hollerbach B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Hoffenheim: Avdullahu L. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 33:37. (average 1.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Hoffenheim won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 2:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Mainz	7	3	1	3	16:13	3	10
10	Hoffenheim	7	3	0	4	14:14	0	9

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Hoffenheim: 0.24% Mainz: 0.2%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TSG Hoffenheim
Club Friendly
26.03.26	Hoffenheim - Elversberg	3:5 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.03.26	RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim	5:0 ✺
14.03.26	Hoffenheim - Wolfsburg	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Heidenheim - Hoffenheim	2:4 ✺
28.02.26	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLTWL
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
22.03.26	Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Mainz - Sigma Olomouc	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Werder Bremen - Mainz	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Sigma Olomouc - Mainz	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
07.03.26	Mainz - Stuttgart	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
21.11.25	Mainz - Hoffenheim	1:1
12.04.25	Hoffenheim - Mainz	2:0
01.12.24	Mainz - Hoffenheim	2:0
13.04.24	Mainz - Hoffenheim	4:1
26.11.23	Hoffenheim - Mainz	1:1
04.03.23	Mainz - Hoffenheim	1:0
Club Friendly
14.01.23	Hoffenheim - Mainz	2:2

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