Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 28

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: PreZero Arena (Sinsheim)

Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hoffenheim		Mainz

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.9	4.75	Watch
	1.7	3.95	4.7	Watch
	1.74	4.05	5.02
	1.73	3.96	4.61	Watch
	1.7	3.7	4.5	Watch
	1.74	3.99	4.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 (1.72)	3.93 ↓ (4.21)	4.74 ↑ (4.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hoffenheim
55.5%

Draw
24.3%

Mainz
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

22.6%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.5%

23.6%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.9%	22.9%	14.3%

Hoffenheim - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Hoffenheim will win (votes: 22 - 62.9%). Mainz will win (votes: 5 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 22.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hoffenheim: 46.9% – 78.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Hoffenheim (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Hoffenheim (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Mainz (3.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hoffenheim will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Hoffenheim (votes: 9 - 90%). Mainz (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baumann O. (C) 34. Coufal V. 5. Kabak O. 21. Hajdari A. 13. Bernardo 18. Burger W. 22. Prass A. 6. Promel G. 29. Toure B. 11. Asllani F. 19. Lemperle T.	33. Batz D. (G) 21. da Costa D. 4. Posch S. 31. Kohr D. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 6. Sano K. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 2. Mwene P. 23. Becker S. 20. Tietz P.
Substitutes
25. Akpoguma K. 7. Avdullahu L. 9. Bebou I. 20. Campbell C. 10. Damar M. 2. Hranac R. 27. Kramaric A. 33. Moerstedt M. 37. Philipp L. (G)	14. Boving W. 24. Kawasaki S. 5. Leitsch M. 15. Maloney L. 48. Potulski K. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N.
Coaches
Ilzer C.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', Kohr D. 🟨,
13', 0 - 1, Tietz P. ⚽, Mwene P. (A),
23', 1 - 1, Asllani F. ⚽, Toure B. (A),
37', Kohr D. ↓, Potulski K. ↑,
45', Kabak O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Widmer S. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
47', Coufal V. 🟨,
61', Coufal V. ↓, Avdullahu L. ↑,
61', Asllani F. ↓, Kramaric A. ↑,
75', Becker S. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
76', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,
79', 1 - 2, Tietz P. ⚽,
79', Burger W. 🟨,
80', Baumann O. 🟨,
84', Prass A. ↓, Bebou I. ↑,
87', Lemperle T. ↓, Moerstedt M. ↑,
87', Nebel P. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 1.

Hoffenheim has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mainz is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Hoffenheim is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Gendrey V. (Ankle Injury) Hlozek A. (Calf Injury) Machida K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Amiri N. (Heel Injury) Bell S. (Lacking Match Fitness) Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hanche-Olsen A. (Muscle Injury) Hollerbach B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Hoffenheim: Avdullahu L. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 33:37. (average 1.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Hoffenheim won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 2:1.6).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Hoffenheim: 0.44% Mainz: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7
14	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7:10	-3	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TSG Hoffenheim
Club Friendly
26.03.26	Hoffenheim - Elversberg	3:5 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.03.26	RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim	5:0 ✺
14.03.26	Hoffenheim - Wolfsburg	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Heidenheim - Hoffenheim	2:4 ✺
28.02.26	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLTWL
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
22.03.26	Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Mainz - Sigma Olomouc	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Werder Bremen - Mainz	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Sigma Olomouc - Mainz	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
07.03.26	Mainz - Stuttgart	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
21.11.25	Mainz - Hoffenheim	1:1
12.04.25	Hoffenheim - Mainz	2:0
01.12.24	Mainz - Hoffenheim	2:0
13.04.24	Mainz - Hoffenheim	4:1
26.11.23	Hoffenheim - Mainz	1:1
04.03.23	Mainz - Hoffenheim	1:0
Club Friendly
14.01.23	Hoffenheim - Mainz	2:2

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