Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 31

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Schroder R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hamburger SV		Hoffenheim

	1	X	2
	4.5	4.2	1.65	Watch
	3.8	3.9	1.85
	4.45	4.15	1.7
	4.85	4.35	1.72
	4.44	4.34	1.69	Watch
	4.2	4	1.67
	4.65	4.34	1.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.41 ↑ (3.58)	4.18 ↑ (4.01)	1.71 ↓ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
21.6%

Draw
22.8%

Hoffenheim
55.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.4%

23.6%

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.1%

23.4%

50.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hoffenheim's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hoffenheim, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.5%	25.9%	55.6%

Hamburger SV - Hoffenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 5 - 18.5%). Hoffenheim will win (votes: 15 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 25.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hoffenheim: 36.9% – 74.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hoffenheim (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. (C) 25. Torunarigha J. 17. Omari W. 18. Jatta B. 21. Remberg N. 23. Gronbaek A. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 20. Vieira F. 9. Glatzel R. 11. Konigsdorffer R.	1. Baumann O. (C) 2. Hranac R. 5. Kabak O. 21. Hajdari A. 34. Coufal V. 7. Avdullahu L. 18. Burger W. 29. Toure B. 11. Asllani F. 27. Kramaric A. 19. Lemperle T.
Substitutes
19. Downs D. 8. Elfadli D. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 3. Katterbach N. 6. Lokonga A. S. 43. Nandja S. 14. Philippe R. 49. Stange O. 12. Tangvik S. (G)	25. Akpoguma K. 9. Bebou I. 13. Bernardo 20. Campbell C. 10. Damar M. 33. Moerstedt M. 37. Philipp L. (G) 22. Prass A. 6. Promel G.
Coaches
Polzin M.	Ilzer C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
8', Hranac R. 🟨,
18', 0 - 1, Asllani F. ⚽, Coufal V. (A),
32', Baumann O. 🟨,
34', 1 - 1, Glatzel R. (Penalty Awarded),
45', 1 - 2, Lemperle T. ⚽, Hajdari A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Hranac R. ↓, Bernardo ↑,
49', Remberg N. 🟨,
64', Asllani F. ↓, Promel G. ↑,
64', Glatzel R. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
69', Promel G. 🟨,
71', Burger W. 🟨,
75', Kramaric A. ↓, Prass A. ↑,
75', Mikelbrencis W. ↓, Lokonga A. S. ↑,
75', Jatta B. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
86', Toure B. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
86', Lemperle T. ↓, Moerstedt M. ↑,
88', Gronbaek A. ↓, Downs D. ↑,
88', Omari W. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
90+2', Lokonga A. S. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 2.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Hoffenheim may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Hoffenheim is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Hamburg: Dompe J. (Foot Injury) Lokonga A. S. (Thigh Injury) Muheim M. (Injury) Otele P. (Red Card) Poulsen Y. (Thigh Injury) Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Ankle Injury) Vuskovic L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Gendrey V. (Ankle Injury) Hlozek A. (Calf Injury) Machida K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Hoffenheim: Bernardo (Injury) Burger W. (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:29. (average 1.3:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1.7:1.7).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Hoffenheim: 0.44%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7:10	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2:13	-11	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
18.04.26	Werder Bremen - Hamburger SV	3:1 ✺
12.04.26	Stuttgart - Hamburger SV	4:0 ✺
04.04.26	Hamburger SV - Augsburg	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV	3:2 ✺
14.03.26	Hamburger SV - Köln	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLTLT
- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
18.04.26	Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund	2:1 ✺
10.04.26	Augsburg - Hoffenheim	2:2 ✺
04.04.26	Hoffenheim - Mainz	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
26.03.26	Hoffenheim - Elversberg	3:5 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.03.26	RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
13.12.25	Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV	4:1
14.04.18	Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV	2:0
26.11.17	Hamburger SV - Hoffenheim	3:0
08.04.17	Hamburger SV - Hoffenheim	2:1
20.11.16	Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV	2:2
19.03.16	Hamburger SV - Hoffenheim	1:3
23.10.15	Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV	0:1

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