Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 22

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel)

Referee: Lechner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Holstein Kiel		Schalke 04

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.25	2.3	Watch
	2.92	3.15	2.38	Watch
	3.24	3.32	2.47
	3.06	3.28	2.38	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.06	3.15	2.36	Watch
	3.1	3.14	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.7)	3.2 ↓ (3.24)	2.36 ↓ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
30.8%

Draw
29.4%

Schalke 04
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

28.7%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

28.2%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Schalke 04 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	16.7%	58.3%

Holstein Kiel - Schalke 04 Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Schalke will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Schalke: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Krumrey J. (G) 13. Nekic I. 26. Zec D. (C) 6. Ivezic M. 23. Rosenboom L. 28. Meffert J. 47. Tolkin J. 10. Therkelsen J. 16. Kelati A. 20. Kapralik A. 19. Harres P.	1. Karius L. (G) 5. Becker T. 25. Katic N. 4. Kurucay H. 16. N'Diaye M. 23. El-Faouzi S. 6. Schallenberg R. 21. Ljubicic D. 24. Aouchiche A. 19. Karaman K. 10. Dzeko E.
Substitutes
18. Jakupovic A. 3. Komenda M. 25. Muller M. 48. Muqaj H. 29. Niehoff N. 40. Parduzi L. 2. Roslyng F. 22. Schwab S. 1. Weiner T. (G)	43. Ayhan M. 14. Bachmann J. 7. Gomis C. 37. Gruger M. 22. Muller K. (G) 27. Porath F. 2. Sanchez F. 9. Sylla M. 35. Wallentowitz M.
Coaches
Rapp M.	Muslic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Karaman K. ⚽, Dzeko E. (A),
29', 0 - 2, Kurucay H. ⚽, Dzeko E. (A),
40', Kelati A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Becker T. ↓, Ayhan M. ↑,
52', Kapralik A. 🟨,
55', 1 - 2, Zec D. (Penalty Awarded),
58', Kapralik A. ↓, Jakupovic A. ↑,
62', Katic N. 🟨,
79', Ljubicic D. ↓, Sylla M. ↑,
84', Rosenboom L. ↓, Niehoff N. ↑,
84', Ivezic M. ↓, Muller M. ↑,
84', Aouchiche A. ↓, Sanchez F. ↑,
85', Karaman K. ↓, Bachmann J. ↑,
86', Muller M. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 3.

Recent form of Holstein Kiel has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Schalke has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Schalke may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Bernhardsson A. (Foot Injury) Erras P. (Concussion) Johansson C. (Knee Injury) Skrzybski S. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Schalke: Becker V. (Knock) Gantenbein A. (Calf Injury) Hojlund E. (Heel Injury) Kalas T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Lasme B. (Knee Injury) Leonard D. (Ankle Injury) Matriciani H. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Holstein Kiel: Tohumcu U. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Holstein Kiel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Outrights of German 2 Bundesliga for now

Holstein Kiel: 0.46%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Holstein Kiel	7	0	4	3	7:11	-4	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
German 2 Bundesliga
08.02.26	Hannover - Holstein Kiel	3:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
04.02.26	Holstein Kiel - Stuttgart	0:3 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
31.01.26	Holstein Kiel - Greuther Fürth	1:2 ✺
23.01.26	Arminia Bielefeld - Holstein Kiel	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Holstein Kiel - Paderborn	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLLTW
- Schalke 04
German 2 Bundesliga
07.02.26	Schalke 04 - Dynamo Dresden	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Bochum - Schalke 04	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Schalke 04 - Kaiserslautern	2:2 ✺
17.01.26	Hertha Berlin - Schalke 04	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
10.01.26	Osnabrück - Schalke 04	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
13.09.25	Schalke 04 - Holstein Kiel	0:1
11.02.24	Holstein Kiel - Schalke 04	1:0
25.08.23	Schalke 04 - Holstein Kiel	0:2
16.01.22	Schalke 04 - Holstein Kiel	1:1
01.08.21	Holstein Kiel - Schalke 04	0:3
Club Friendly
22.07.16	Holstein Kiel - Schalke 04	1:2

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