Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 22

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Lechner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	09:30	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	16:30	Fast Sports
Australia	23:30	beIN Connect, ESPN
Austria	13:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Brazil	09:30	Canal GOAT
Canada	07:30	DAZN Canada
Colombia	07:30	ESPN
Czech Republic	13:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	13:30	Viaplay
Finland	14:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	13:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	13:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, WOW
Greece	14:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	13:30	Arena 4
Iceland	12:30	Viaplay
Israel	14:30	Sport 3
Italy	13:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Max
Laos	19:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	13:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	06:30	Sky Sport
Netherlands	13:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	01:30	beIN Connect
North Macedonia	13:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	13:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 2
Peru	07:30	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	13:30	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	12:30	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	14:30	Prima Sport PPV 2
Saudi Arabia	15:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	13:30	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	20:30	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	13:30	Nova Sport 3, Sport TV2, Voyo
Spain	13:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	13:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	13:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Thailand	19:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	15:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Uruguay	09:30	Disney+
Usa	07:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	08:30	Disney+, ESPN
International	12:30	Onefootball


	Holstein Kiel		Schalke 04

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.25	2.3	Watch
	2.92	3.15	2.38	Watch
	3.24	3.32	2.47
	3.06	3.28	2.38	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.06	3.15	2.36	Watch
	3.1	3.14	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.7)	3.2 ↓ (3.24)	2.36 ↓ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
30.8%

Draw
29.4%

Schalke 04
39.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.4%

28.7%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

28.4%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Schalke 04 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	16.7%	58.3%

Holstein Kiel - Schalke 04 Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Schalke will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Schalke: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Krumrey J. (G) 13. Nekic I. 26. Zec D. (C) 6. Ivezic M. 23. Rosenboom L. 28. Meffert J. 47. Tolkin J. 10. Therkelsen J. 16. Kelati A. 20. Kapralik A. 19. Harres P.	1. Karius L. (G) 5. Becker T. 25. Katic N. 4. Kurucay H. 16. N'Diaye M. 23. El-Faouzi S. 6. Schallenberg R. 21. Ljubicic D. 24. Aouchiche A. 19. Karaman K. 10. Dzeko E.
Substitutes
18. Jakupovic A. 3. Komenda M. 25. Muller M. 48. Muqaj H. 29. Niehoff N. 40. Parduzi L. 2. Roslyng F. 22. Schwab S. 1. Weiner T. (G)	43. Ayhan M. 14. Bachmann J. 7. Gomis C. 37. Gruger M. 22. Muller K. (G) 27. Porath F. 2. Sanchez F. 9. Sylla M. 35. Wallentowitz M.
Coaches
Rapp M.	Muslic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Karaman K. ⚽, Dzeko E. (A),
29', 0 - 2, Kurucay H. ⚽, Dzeko E. (A),
40', Kelati A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Becker T. ↓, Ayhan M. ↑,
52', Kapralik A. 🟨,
55', 1 - 2, Zec D. (Penalty Awarded),
58', Kapralik A. ↓, Jakupovic A. ↑,
62', Katic N. 🟨,
79', Ljubicic D. ↓, Sylla M. ↑,
84', Rosenboom L. ↓, Niehoff N. ↑,
84', Ivezic M. ↓, Muller M. ↑,
84', Aouchiche A. ↓, Sanchez F. ↑,
85', Karaman K. ↓, Bachmann J. ↑,
86', Muller M. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 3.

Recent form of Holstein Kiel has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Schalke has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Schalke may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Bernhardsson A. (Foot Injury) Erras P. (Concussion) Johansson C. (Knee Injury) Skrzybski S. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Schalke: Becker V. (Knock) Gantenbein A. (Calf Injury) Hojlund E. (Heel Injury) Kalas T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Lasme B. (Knee Injury) Leonard D. (Ankle Injury) Matriciani H. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Holstein Kiel: Tohumcu U. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Holstein Kiel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Holstein Kiel	9	1	5	3	10:11	-1	8

Outrights of German 2 Bundesliga for now

Holstein Kiel: 0.53%

Last Results with these Odds

Schalke 04 - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 36.95%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
German 2 Bundesliga
08.02.26	Hannover - Holstein Kiel	3:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
04.02.26	Holstein Kiel - Stuttgart	0:3 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
31.01.26	Holstein Kiel - Greuther Fürth	1:2 ✺
23.01.26	Arminia Bielefeld - Holstein Kiel	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Holstein Kiel - Paderborn	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLLTW
- Schalke 04
German 2 Bundesliga
07.02.26	Schalke 04 - Dynamo Dresden	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Bochum - Schalke 04	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Schalke 04 - Kaiserslautern	2:2 ✺
17.01.26	Hertha Berlin - Schalke 04	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
10.01.26	Osnabrück - Schalke 04	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
13.09.25	Schalke 04 - Holstein Kiel	0:1
11.02.24	Holstein Kiel - Schalke 04	1:0
25.08.23	Schalke 04 - Holstein Kiel	0:2
16.01.22	Schalke 04 - Holstein Kiel	1:1
01.08.21	Holstein Kiel - Schalke 04	0:3
Club Friendly
22.07.16	Holstein Kiel - Schalke 04	1:2

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