Match Info

FA Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday

Location: MKM Stadium (Hull)

Referee: Hallam F. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hull City		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	13	7	1.17
	14.5	6.9	1.19
	13.31	7.27	1.2
	10.56	6.12	1.24	Watch
	12	6	1.18
	13.7	6.95	1.18	Watch
	13	7	1.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	12.87 ↑ (7.69)	6.75 ↑ (5.19)	1.19 ↓ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hull City
7.3%

Draw
13.9%

Chelsea
78.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.2%

18%

69.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16%

13.7%

53.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hull City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chelsea's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hull City than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hull City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (-25.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chelsea, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	23.1%	76.9%

Hull City - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Chelsea will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chelsea: 46.4% – 99%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Chelsea (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chelsea will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Phillips D. (G) 37. McNair P. 15. Egan J. 58. McCarthy C. 2. Coyle L. (C) 20. Hadziahmetovic A. 27. Slater R. 3. Giles R. 13. Hirakawa Y. 7. Millar L. 36. Koumas L.	1. Sanchez R. (G) 24. James R. (C) 29. Fofana W. 19. Sarr M. 21. Hato J. 17. Andrey Santos 25. Caicedo M. 41. Estêvão 7. Neto P. 49. Garnacho A. 9. Delap L.
Substitutes
26. Dowell K. 18. Drameh C. 23. Famewo A. 21. Gelhardt J. 16. Jacob M. 22. Joseph K. 5. Lundstram J. 1. Pandur I. (G) 47. Tinsdale N.	34. Acheampong J. 4. Adarabioyo T. 5. Badiashile B. 11. Derry J. 8. Fernandez E. 27. Gusto M. 20. Joao Pedro 62. Mheuka S. 28. Sharman-Lowe T. (G)
Coaches
Jakirovic S.	Rosenior L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
40', 0 - 1, Neto P. ⚽, Delap L. (A),
45+1', Neto P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
51', 0 - 2, Neto P. ⚽,
59', 0 - 3, Estêvão ⚽, Delap L. (A),
60', James R. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
61', Caicedo M. ↓, Acheampong J. ↑,
64', Hadziahmetovic A. ↓, Lundstram J. ↑,
64', Millar L. ↓, Gelhardt J. ↑,
66', Sarr M. 🟨,
71', 0 - 4, Neto P. ⚽, Delap L. (A),
73', Lundstram J. 🟨,
77', Estêvão ↓, Derry J. ↑,
77', Fofana W. ↓, Adarabioyo T. ↑,
77', Hirakawa Y. ↓, Joseph K. ↑,
77', Coyle L. ↓, Drameh C. ↑,
80', McCarthy C. ↓, Dowell K. ↑,
88', Delap L. ↓, Mheuka S. ↑,
90', Gelhardt J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hull won 0.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Chelsea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Chelsea is the clear favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Hull won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 3:19. (average 0.4:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Hull won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:9. (average 0.8:2.3).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Chelsea: 7.55%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hull City
English League Championship
07.02.26	Hull City - Bristol City	2:3 ✺
03.02.26	Hull City - Watford	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Blackburn Rovers - Hull City	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	Hull City - Swansea City	2:1 ✺
20.01.26	Preston North End - Hull City	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LTWWW
- Chelsea
English Premier League
10.02.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Chelsea	1:3 ✺
English League Cup
03.02.26	Arsenal - Chelsea	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
31.01.26	Chelsea - West Ham United	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Napoli - Chelsea	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
25.01.20	Hull City - Chelsea	1:2
16.02.18	Chelsea - Hull City	4:0
English Premier League
22.01.17	Chelsea - Hull City	2:0
01.10.16	Hull City - Chelsea	0:2
22.03.15	Hull City - Chelsea	2:3
13.12.14	Chelsea - Hull City	2:0
11.01.14	Hull City - Chelsea	0:2

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