Match Info

Date: 30 April 2022, Saturday


	Ingolstadt		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
	7	4.75	1.44	Watch
	7	5	1.42	Watch
	7.5	4.8	1.38
	7.2	4.7	1.4
	7.39	4.81	1.45
	7.5	4.5	1.38	Watch
	7.3	5.05	1.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.27 ↑ (3.97)	4.8 ↑ (3.67)	1.41 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ingolstadt
13%

Draw
19.7%

Hamburger SV
67.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.4%

25.3%

51.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.2%

25.1%

51.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ingolstadt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ingolstadt's form might have worsened.

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hamburger SV's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ingolstadt than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ingolstadt, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-15.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hamburger SV, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.2%	11.3%	75.5%

Ingolstadt - Hamburger SV Predictions

Users Predictions: 53 users predict this event. Ingolstadt will win (votes: 7 - 13.2%). Hamburg will win (votes: 40 - 75.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 11.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hamburg: 63.9% – 87.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga and 5).

Ingolstadt is Relegated to 3. Liga

Ingolstadt has the most likely position - 18 (73.53%), has project points - 23, has currently - 20, was already of relegated.

Hamburg has the most likely position - 4 (40.75%), has project points - 57, has currently - 51, has not chance of relegated, has a small chance of promoted (13%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 32, small importance 27, small match rating 29. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ingolstadt won 0.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Hamburg could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Hamburg is certain favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Ingolstadt won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Ingolstadt won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ingolstadt 04
German 2 Bundesliga
22.04.22	Karlsruher - Ingolstadt	2:2 ✺
17.04.22	Ingolstadt - Paderborn	0:1 ✺
08.04.22	Jahn Regensburg - Ingolstadt	1:1 ✺
01.04.22	Ingolstadt - Erzgebirge Aue	3:2 ✺
20.03.22	Holstein Kiel - Ingolstadt	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TLTWL
- Hamburger SV
German 2 Bundesliga
23.04.22	Jahn Regensburg - Hamburger SV	2:4 ✺
German DFB Pokal
19.04.22	Hamburger SV - Freiburg	1:3 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
16.04.22	Hamburger SV - Karlsruher	3:0 ✺
10.04.22	Holstein Kiel - Hamburger SV	1:0 ✺
05.04.22	Hamburger SV - Erzgebirge Aue	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
28.11.21	Hamburger SV - Ingolstadt	3:0
04.05.19	Hamburger SV - Ingolstadt	0:3
01.12.18	Ingolstadt - Hamburger SV	1:2
German Bundesliga
28.01.17	Ingolstadt - Hamburger SV	3:1
27.08.16	Hamburger SV - Ingolstadt	1:1
27.02.16	Hamburger SV - Ingolstadt	1:1
22.09.15	Ingolstadt - Hamburger SV	0:1

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