Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 33

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Setanta Sports 2
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5P
Brazil	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	SportKlub 5
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3, Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Nova Sport 5, Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Tanzania	ZBC 2 Tanzania
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Hamburger SV		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.75	2.35	Watch
	2.75	3.5	2.45
	2.82	3.55	2.42	Watch
	2.97	3.74	2.38
	2.72	3.62	2.48	Watch
	2.7	3.4	2.3	Watch
	2.85	3.81	2.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.64)	3.62 ↑ (3.55)	2.41 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
34.1%

Draw
26.3%

Freiburg
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

26.6%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

27.2%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24.1%	41.4%	34.5%

Hamburger SV - Freiburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 7 - 25%). Freiburg will win (votes: 10 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 39.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.2% – 57.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Freiburg (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Freiburg (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. (C) 44. Vuskovic L. 17. Omari W. 18. Jatta B. 21. Remberg N. 6. Lokonga A. S. 23. Gronbaek A. 20. Vieira F. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 49. Stange O.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 17. Kubler L. 28. Ginter M. 43. Ogbus B. 29. Treu P. 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 19. Beste J. 9. Holer L. 32. Grifo V. (C) 31. Matanovic I.
Substitutes
45. Balde F. 8. Elfadli D. 37. Lemke L. 43. Nandja S. 27. Otele P. 14. Philippe R. 15. Poulsen Y. 12. Tangvik S. (G) 25. Torunarigha J.	30. Gunter C. 27. Hofler N. 22. Irie C. 5. Jung A. 3. Lienhart P. 33. Makengo J. 21. Muller F. (G) 26. Philipp M. 7. Scherhant D.
Coaches
Polzin M.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Jatta B. ⚽, Gronbaek A. (A),
16', 1 - 1, Matanovic I. ⚽, Kubler L. (A),
20', Kubler L. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
58', Manzambi J. ↓, Hofler N. ↑,
59', Beste J. ↓, Makengo J. ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Vuskovic L. ⚽,
65', Vuskovic L. 🟨,
65', Stange O. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
65', Jatta B. ↓, Balde F. ↑,
67', 3 - 1, Balde F. ⚽, Remberg N. (A),
68', Ogbus B. ↓, Lienhart P. ↑,
68', Kubler L. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
71', Ginter M. ↓, Jung A. ↑,
80', Lokonga A. S. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
86', Holer L. 🟨,
86', Capaldo N. 🟨,
87', 3 - 2, Matanovic I. ⚽, Grifo V. (A),
90+6', Vieira F. ↓, Lemke L. ↑,
90+6', Vuskovic L. ↓, Nandja S. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 1.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Hamburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Hamburg: Glatzel R. (Calf Injury) Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Freiburg: Osterhage P. (Knee Injury) Rosenfelder M. (Hamstring Injury) Suzuki Y. (Broken collarbone)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Muheim M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Beste J. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 2 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 15:22. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1:1.6).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Freiburg: 0.72%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12:3	9	10
11	Hamburger SV	5	2	0	3	5:15	-10	6

Last Results with these Odds

Hamburger SV - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 35.88%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Freiburg - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 37.5%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
02.05.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Hamburger SV	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Hamburger SV - Hoffenheim	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Werder Bremen - Hamburger SV	3:1 ✺
12.04.26	Stuttgart - Hamburger SV	4:0 ✺
04.04.26	Hamburger SV - Augsburg	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLLLT
- SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa League
07.05.26	Freiburg - Braga	3:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
03.05.26	Freiburg - Wolfsburg	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.04.26	Braga - Freiburg	2:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
26.04.26	Borussia Dortmund - Freiburg	4:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
23.04.26	Stuttgart - Freiburg	2:1 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
10.01.26	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	2:1
German DFB Pokal
30.10.24	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	2:1
Club Friendly
13.01.23	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	5:2
German DFB Pokal
19.04.22	Hamburger SV - Freiburg	1:3
German Bundesliga
21.04.18	Hamburger SV - Freiburg	1:0
Club Friendly
07.01.18	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	1:1
German Bundesliga
01.12.17	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	0:0

Upcoming Matches