Match Info

J1 League - Round 10

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Fukuda Denshi Arena (Chiba)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	JEF United Chiba		Mito HollyHock

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.57	Watch
	2.68	3.05	2.62	Watch
	2.87	3.15	2.75
	2.78	3.13	2.68	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.63
	2.72	3.14	2.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.62)	3.08 ↓ (3.32)	2.64 ↓ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

JEF United Chiba
34.1%

Draw
30.4%

Mito HollyHock
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

28.5%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

29%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

JEF United Chiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Mito HollyHock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for JEF United Chiba than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mito HollyHock than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	66.7%	16.7%

JEF United Chiba - Mito HollyHock Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. JEF United will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Mito HollyHock will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Wakahara T. (G) 2. Takahashi I. 13. Suzuki D. (C) 28. Kawano T. 67. Hidaka M. 42. Issaka Z. 15. Mae T. 5. Kobayashi Y. 8. Tsukui T. 20. Ishikawa D. 9. Goya H.	34. Nishikawa K. (G) 25. Mase T. 17. Itakura K. 71. Fofana M. 6. Iida T. 70. Matheus Leiria 3. Osaki K. 19. Semba T. 14. Arai M. 29. Tada K. 10. Watanabe A. (C)
Substitutes
32. Amagasa T. 37. Himeno M. 33. Igari Y. 39. Ishio R. 27. Iwai T. 3. Kuboniwa R. 19. Suarez J. (G) 18. Sugiyama N. 41. Yasui T.	82. Kawakami K. 21. Matsubara S. (G) 9. Nemoto R. 44. Okuda K. 7. Omori S. 4. Ushizawa T. 39. Yamamoto H. 48. Yamashita Y. 24. Yamazaki K.
Coaches
Kobayashi Y.	Kimori D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Fofana M. ↓, Ushizawa T. ↑,
45+4', 0 - 1, Matheus Leiria ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Hidaka M. ↓, Ishio R. ↑,
59', Tsukui T. ↓, Sugiyama N. ↑,
59', Issaka Z. ↓, Himeno M. ↑,
66', Kobayashi Y. 🟨,
69', Matheus Leiria ↓, Nemoto R. ↑,
69', Arai M. ↓, Yamamoto H. ↑,
72', Mae T. ↓, Yasui T. ↑,
74', Takahashi I. 🟨,
75', 1 - 1, Yasui T. ⚽, Goya H. (A),
82', Semba T. ↓, Yamazaki K. ↑,
83', Itakura K. ↓, Omori S. ↑,
90+8', Osaki K. 🟨,
90+9', Kobayashi Y. ↓, Igari Y. ↑,
Penalties (2 - 3)
1, Takahashi I. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Osaki K. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Ishikawa D. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Watanabe A. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Himeno M. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Omori S. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Ishio R. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Nemoto R. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Goya H. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, JEF United won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in JEF United: Tanaka K. (Knee Injury) Ueda Y. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Mito HollyHock: Danilo Cardoso (Red Card) Kato C. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, JEF United won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:24. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, JEF United won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.6:1.3).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Mito: 0.78% Chiba: 0.52%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Mito	4	1	2	1	6:5	1	5
20	Chiba	4	0	0	4	2:13	-11	0

Last Results with these Odds

Mito HollyHock - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 35.42%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- JEF United Chiba
Japan J1 League
04.04.26	JEF United Chiba - Tokyo Verdy	3:2 ✺
22.03.26	Kashima Antlers - JEF United Chiba	2:1 ✺
18.03.26	JEF United Chiba - Tokyo	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - JEF United Chiba	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	JEF United Chiba - Kashiwa Reysol	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WLLLW
- Mito HollyHock
Japan J1 League
04.04.26	Mito HollyHock - Kashima Antlers	2:1 penalties ✺
22.03.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Mito HollyHock	3:0 ✺
18.03.26	Mito HollyHock - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Mito HollyHock - Tokyo	1:2 penalties ✺
07.03.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Mito HollyHock	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
22.02.26	Mito HollyHock - JEF United Chiba	2:1 penalties
Japan J2 League
19.10.25	Mito HollyHock - JEF United Chiba	0:1
05.04.25	JEF United Chiba - Mito HollyHock	2:1
07.09.24	JEF United Chiba - Mito HollyHock	4:0
24.03.24	Mito HollyHock - JEF United Chiba	0:0
08.10.23	JEF United Chiba - Mito HollyHock	1:1
11.06.23	Mito HollyHock - JEF United Chiba	4:1

Upcoming Matches