Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 34

Date: 25 May 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski (Bialystok)

Referee: Raczkowski P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 4


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Warta Poznań

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.75	5.75	Watch
	1.44	4.6	6.25
	1.42	4.75	6.5	Watch
	1.44	4.7	7.46
	1.41	4.64	7.46
	1.36	4.6	6.5
	1.43	4.75	6.43	Watch
	1.43	4.6	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.46)	4.67 ↑ (4)	6.52 ↑ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
65.7%

Draw
20%

Warta Poznań
14.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.5%

22.5%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

22.8%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Warta Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Warta Poznań than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.5%	17.6%	5.9%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Warta Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: Jagiellonia Białystok will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alomerovic Z. (G) 16. Sacek M. 72. Skrzypczak M. 17. Dieguez A. 27. Wdowik B. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 8. Nene 7. Marczuk D. 11. Imaz J. 99. Hansen K. 10. Pululu A.	1. Lis A. (G) 2. Bartkowski J. 4. Stavropoulos D. 3. Kielb J. 28. Borowski F. 15. Kopczynski M. 21. Kupczak M. (C) 8. Maenpaa N. 22. Matuszewski K. 99. Zrelak A. 7. Szmyt K.
Substitutes
50. Abramowicz S. (G) 9. Caliskaner K. 4. Haliti J. 14. Kubicki J. 18. Kupisz T. 77. Laski W. 36. Lewicki J. 39. Nguiamba A. 3. Stojinovic D.	9. Eppel M. 33. Grobelny J. (G) 16. Luis M. 20. Mezghrani M. 25. Paszkowski J. 27. Przybylko K. 77. Savic S. 44. Szymonowicz D. 11. Tonder F.
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Szulczek D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Nene ⚽, Pululu A. (A),
11', 2 - 0, Romanczuk T. ⚽, Wdowik B. (A),
26', 3 - 0, Imaz J. ⚽, Marczuk D. (A),
44', Zrelak A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Kopczynski M. ↓, Luis M. ↑,
60', Kupczak M. 🟨,
61', Dieguez A. 🟨,
62', Zrelak A. ↓, Eppel M. ↑,
62', Kielb J. ↓, Szymonowicz D. ↑,
67', Pululu A. ↓, Caliskaner K. ↑,
76', Sacek M. 🟨,
77', Maenpaa N. ↓, Savic S. ↑,
79', Savic S. 🟨,
81', Nene ↓, Kubicki J. ↑,
81', Imaz J. ↓, Nguiamba A. ↑,
84', Nguiamba A. 🟨,
86', Marczuk D. ↓, Kupisz T. ↑,
86', Hansen K. ↓, Lewicki J. ↑,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Jagiellonia won 4.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match Jagiellonia is certain favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Jagiellonia won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Jagiellonia won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
18.05.24	Piast Gliwice - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1 ✺
11.05.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Korona Kielce	3:0 ✺
04.05.24	Stal Mielec - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:2 ✺
26.04.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Pogoń Szczecin	2:2 ✺
20.04.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWLTW
- Warta Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.05.24	Warta Poznań - Legia Warsaw	0:1 ✺
12.05.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - Warta Poznań	1:0 ✺
05.05.24	Warta Poznań - Widzew Łódź	2:1 ✺
26.04.24	Piast Gliwice - Warta Poznań	2:0 ✺
22.04.24	Warta Poznań - Stal Mielec	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Cup
05.12.23	Jagiellonia Białystok - Warta Poznań	2:0
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.12.23	Warta Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2
29.04.23	Jagiellonia Białystok - Warta Poznań	3:1
15.10.22	Warta Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:0
Club Friendly
25.06.22	Jagiellonia Białystok - Warta Poznań	1:0
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.02.22	Jagiellonia Białystok - Warta Poznań	1:1
27.08.21	Warta Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1

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