Match Info

Date: 23 November 2020, Monday


	Jong AZ Alkmaar		NEC Nijmegen

	1	X	2
	3.4	4	1.95	Watch
	3.1	4	1.85
	3.4	3.95	1.9	Watch
	3.15	3.8	1.95
	3.47	4.19	1.99
	3.3	3.6	1.88	Watch
	3.55	4.15	1.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↓ (3.35)	3.96 ↑ (3.9)	1.92 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jong AZ Alkmaar
27.9%

Draw
23.5%

NEC Nijmegen
48.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.7%

23.8%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

18.5%

62.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jong AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

NEC Nijmegen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jong AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jong AZ Alkmaar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for NEC Nijmegen than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that NEC Nijmegen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19.2%	11.5%	69.2%

Jong AZ Alkmaar - NEC Nijmegen Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Jong AZ will win (votes: 5 - 19.2%). Nijmegen will win (votes: 18 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nijmegen: 51.5% – 86.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 and 6 in the zone Promotion to Eredivisie (Relegation)).

Jong AZ has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Nijmegen is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Nijmegen will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Jong AZ won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Jong AZ won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jong AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eerste Divisie
20.11.20	Excelsior - Jong AZ Alkmaar	4:1 ✺
06.11.20	Almere City - Jong AZ Alkmaar	2:0 ✺
02.11.20	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Telstar	1:1 ✺
23.10.20	FC Eindhoven - Jong AZ Alkmaar	3:0 ✺
19.10.20	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Volendam	2:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLL
- NEC Nijmegen
Dutch Eerste Divisie
20.11.20	NEC Nijmegen - Roda	1:1 ✺
06.11.20	NEC Nijmegen - Helmond Sport	2:2 ✺
30.10.20	NAC Breda - NEC Nijmegen	0:1 ✺
23.10.20	NEC Nijmegen - Go Ahead Eagles	2:1 ✺
20.10.20	Jong PSV - NEC Nijmegen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
21.10.19	Jong AZ Alkmaar - NEC Nijmegen	0:2
01.04.19	Jong AZ Alkmaar - NEC Nijmegen	4:0
04.11.18	NEC Nijmegen - Jong AZ Alkmaar	3:1
20.04.18	NEC Nijmegen - Jong AZ Alkmaar	2:0
22.12.17	Jong AZ Alkmaar - NEC Nijmegen	2:7

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