Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 26 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez (Juárez)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Caliente TV, FOX One, Fox Sports, Tubi TV
Usa	Estrella TV, NBC Universo, Peacock, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW


	Juárez		Toluca

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.6	1.96
	3.55	3.45	1.98
	3.79	3.64	2.02
	3.24	3.52	2.15	Watch
	3.61	3.4	1.99	Watch
	3.75	3.66	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.61 ↑ (3.15)	3.55 ↑ (3.4)	2.01 ↓ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juárez
26.2%

Draw
26.7%

Toluca
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

26.9%

43.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

26.7%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juárez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juárez than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	16.7%	66.7%

Juárez - Toluca Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Juárez will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Toluca will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Juárez will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jurado S. (C) 5. Garcia D. 2. Murillo J. 26. Manriquez J. 4. Mayorga A. 18. Martinez Yepez H. E. 21. Ricardinho 8. Guilherme Castilho 17. Pizarro R. 11. Puma 19. Estupinan O.	1. Gonzalez H. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 6. Pereira F. 3. Briseno A. 20. Gallardo J. 10. Angulo J. 5. Romero F. 14. Ruiz M. (C) 8. Castro N. 31. Morales R. 26. Paulinho
Substitutes
24. Diaz B. (G) 13. Fulgencio R. 25. Gonzalez Mendoza J. A. 208. Larios I. 237. Lopez E. 33. Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. 14. Ochoa D. 183. Silva L. 10. Villalpando D. 29. Zaldivar A.	35. Alvarez A. 24. Arce F. 25. del Villar E. 7. Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 22. Garcia L. (G) 11. Helinho 16. Herrera H. 17. Isais M. 187. Pumpido F. 23. Virgen O.
Coaches
Varini M.	Mohamed A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Murillo J. ⚽, Puma (A),
17', Martinez Yepez H. E. 🟨,
21', Garcia D. ↓, Ochoa D. ↑,
28', Ochoa D. 🟨,
35', Barbosa D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
56', 1 - 1, Briseno A. ⚽,
56', Morales R. ↓, Helinho ↑,
63', Ricardinho ↓, Fulgencio R. ↑,
63', Estupinan O. ↓, Zaldivar A. ↑,
65', 1 - 2, Paulinho ⚽, Barbosa D. (A),
76', Angulo J. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
79', Mayorga A. 🟨,
86', Pizarro R. 🟨,
90+1', Martinez Yepez H. E. ↓, Villalpando D. ↑,
90+2', Pizarro R. ↓, Silva L. ↑,
90+3', Castro N. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
90+3', Paulinho ↓, del Villar E. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juárez won 1.

Juárez has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Toluca is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Juárez may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Toluca could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Toluca: Luan (Muscle Injury) Vega A. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Juárez: Madson (Injury) Mosquera M. (Injury) Valoyes D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Toluca: del Villar E. (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Juárez won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:24. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Juárez won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 1:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Juárez
Mexican Liga MX
23.11.25	Juárez - Pachuca	2:1 ✺
20.11.25	Tijuana - Juárez	3:1 ✺
07.11.25	Juárez - Querétaro	1:2 ✺
31.10.25	Atlético San Luis - Juárez	1:2 ✺
24.10.25	Juárez - Puebla	4:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLLWT
- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
08.11.25	Toluca - Club América	2:0 ✺
01.11.25	Atlas - Toluca	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Toluca - Pachuca	2:2 ✺
22.10.25	Tijuana - Toluca	0:0 ✺
18.10.25	Toluca - Querétaro	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
11.08.25	Juárez - Toluca	0:2
22.02.25	Juárez - Toluca	0:4
13.07.24	Toluca - Juárez	3:2
08.03.24	Juárez - Toluca	1:1
16.07.23	Toluca - Juárez	2:4
23.04.23	Toluca - Juárez	1:1
09.10.22	Toluca - Juárez	3:0

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