Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 19

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez (Barranquilla)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Junior Barranquilla		Deportivo Pasto

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.5	4.2	Watch
	1.85	3.3	3.9
	1.88	3.35	4.15	Watch
	1.86	3.48	4.44
	1.78	3.59	4.45	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.2
	1.83	3.5	4.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.79)	3.43 ↑ (3.39)	4.22 ↓ (4.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Junior Barranquilla
50.8%

Draw
27.1%

Deportivo Pasto
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

27.5%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

26.9%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Junior Barranquilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Deportivo Pasto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Junior Barranquilla than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Junior Barranquilla - Deportivo Pasto Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Junior will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Junior (1.88) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Junior (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Martinez J. (G) 3. Herrera E. 24. Pestana J. 5. Rivera D. 27. Navia J. 14. Rios J. 8. Chara Y. 77. Barrios C. 10. Muriel L. 88. Castrillon B. 70. Bacca C. (C)	1. Herrerin I. (G) 27. Goyes H. 8. Serje Orozco E. C. 5. Gil N. (C) 21. Velasco E. 18. Micolta Piedahita J. 6. Caicedo J. 23. Goez Y. 16. Gil M. 11. Estupinan A. 10. Chavez D.
Substitutes
80. Angel Bernal F. S. 21. Canchimbo J. 29. Gutierrez T. 9. Paiva G. 22. Rivas J. 20. Sarmiento J. 38. Shmalbach A. 1. Silveira M. (G) 19. Socarras D.	12. Banguera G. (G) 17. Bernal J. 30. Guerrero D. 15. Mancilla H. 19. Morelo W. 9. Preciado P. 31. Rueda L. 22. Tolosa Y. 26. Valencia H.
Coaches
Arias A.	Risueno J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Gil M. ⚽,
2nd Half (4 - 2)
46', Barrios C. ↓, Canchimbo J. ↑,
52', Castrillon B. ↓, Paiva G. ↑,
52', Bacca C. ↓, Gutierrez T. ↑,
52', Chara Y. ↓, Rivas J. ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Paiva G. ⚽, Canchimbo J. (A),
56', 1 - 2, Estupinan A. ⚽, Gil M. (A),
63', 2 - 2, Muriel L. ⚽, Paiva G. (A),
69', Chavez D. 🟨,
70', 3 - 2, Canchimbo J. ⚽, Gutierrez T. (A),
75', Chavez D. ↓, Morelo W. ↑,
76', Goyes H. 🟨,
78', 4 - 2, Muriel L. ⚽, Gutierrez T. (A),
81', Pestana J. 🟨,
82', 4 - 3, Caicedo J. ⚽, Serje Orozco E. C. (A),
83', Rios J. ↓, Angel Bernal F. S. ↑,
86', Canchimbo J. 🟨,
86', Gil M. 🟨,
87', Gil M. ↓, Rueda L. ↑,

Preview

Junior is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )

Deportivo Pasto is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Junior won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Junior may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Junior has had a series of away games.

In this match, Junior is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Junior won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:16. (average 1.1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Junior won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:3. (average 1.2:0.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Junior	12	2	4	6	18:22	-4	10
18	Dep. Pasto	12	2	3	7	9:18	-9	9

Last Results with these Odds

Junior Barranquilla - the odds 1.79 are the expected chance of winning is 52.09%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Junior Barranquilla
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Sporting Cristal - Junior Barranquilla	2:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
24.04.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Junior Barranquilla	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Junior Barranquilla - Llaneros SA	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Cerro Porteño - Junior Barranquilla	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
11.04.26	Rionegro Águilas - Junior Barranquilla	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTWLW
- Deportivo Pasto
Colombian Primera A
23.04.26	Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Deportivo Pasto	2:3 ✺
10.04.26	Deportivo Pasto - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
01.04.26	Alianza Valledupar - Deportivo Pasto	0:0 ✺
29.03.26	Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Nacional	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
28.09.25	Junior Barranquilla - Deportivo Pasto	2:0
12.04.25	Deportivo Pasto - Junior Barranquilla	3:3
28.08.24	Deportivo Pasto - Junior Barranquilla	1:0
08.02.24	Junior Barranquilla - Deportivo Pasto	2:0
12.08.23	Junior Barranquilla - Deportivo Pasto	0:0
18.02.23	Deportivo Pasto - Junior Barranquilla	1:0
18.09.22	Deportivo Pasto - Junior Barranquilla	2:1

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