Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 18

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: RheinEnergieStadion (Cologne)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Startimes Sports Focus
Albania	Tring Sport 5
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
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Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
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Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Extra 2
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
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Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 1
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Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Thailand	beIN Connect
Turkey	S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Köln		Mainz

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.5	3.5	Watch
	2.12	3.45	3.45	Watch
	2.12	3.5	3.44	Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.3
	2.2	3.48	3.48	Watch
	2.12	3.4	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (2.06)	3.44 ↓ (3.66)	3.45 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Köln
44.7%

Draw
27.7%

Mainz
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

26%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

27%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Köln has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Köln than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.9%	26.5%	20.6%

Köln - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Köln will win (votes: 18 - 52.9%). Mainz will win (votes: 7 - 20.6%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 26.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Köln: 36.1% – 69.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Köln (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Köln (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Köln will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Köln (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Mainz (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schwabe M. (C) 28. Sebulonsen S. 22. Simpson-Pusey J. 39. Ozkacar C. 16. Kaminski J. 6. Martel E. 18. Johannesson I. 17. Castro-Montes A. 37. Maina L. 13. El Mala S. 30. Bulter M.	33. Batz D. (G) 31. Kohr D. 16. Bell S. 48. Potulski K. 21. da Costa D. 6. Sano K. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 20. Tietz P. 26. Silas
Substitutes
9. Ache R. 11. Kainz F. 5. Krauss T. 32. Lund K. 40. Schenten F. 29. Thielmann J. 33. van den Berg R. 7. Waldschmidt L. 20. Zieler R. (G)	37. Bobzien B. 14. Boving W. 24. Kawasaki S. 5. Leitsch M. 15. Maloney L. 36. Moreno Fell F. 9. Nordin A. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A.
Coaches
Kwasniok L.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Martel E. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Bell S. ⚽, da Costa D. (A),
43', Lee Jae-Sung 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Martel E. ↓, Krauss T. ↑,
46', Johannesson I. ↓, Ache R. ↑,
46', Ozkacar C. ↓, Lund K. ↑,
57', 1 - 1, Ache R. ⚽, Castro-Montes A. (A),
61', Silas ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
61', Widmer S. 🟨,
72', Bulter M. 🟨,
72', Tietz P. 🟨,
72', El Mala S. 🟨,
72', Batz D. 🟨,
73', Maina L. ↓, Waldschmidt L. ↑,
74', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Boving W. ↑,
74', Bell S. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
83', Castro-Montes A. ↓, Thielmann J. ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Ache R. ⚽,
87', Krauss T. 🟨,
90', Sano K. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
90', Nebel P. ↓, Moreno Fell F. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 13 and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Köln won 1.

Köln is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mainz is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mainz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Köln might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Köln: Hubers T. (Knee Injury) Kilian L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hanche-Olsen A. (Injury) Hollerbach B. (Illness) Leitsch M. (Muscle Injury) Mwene P. (Muscle Injury) Veratschnig N. (Injury) Weiper N. (Illness) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Köln: Schmied J. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Köln won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 27:26. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Köln won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.6:1.3).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Mainz: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Mainz	5	2	1	2	13:10	3	7
14	FC Koln	4	1	1	2	6:9	-3	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Köln
German Bundesliga
14.01.26	Köln - Bayern Munich	1:3 ✺
10.01.26	Heidenheim - Köln	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Lugano - Köln	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.12.25	Köln - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Köln	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTWLL
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
13.01.26	Mainz - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Union Berlin - Mainz	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Mainz - St. Pauli	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Mainz - Samsunspor	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.12.25	Bayern Munich - Mainz	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.3 WTTWT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
24.08.25	Mainz - Köln	0:1
28.04.24	Mainz - Köln	1:1
10.12.23	Köln - Mainz	0:0
15.04.23	Köln - Mainz	1:1
21.10.22	Mainz - Köln	5:0
09.04.22	Köln - Mainz	3:2
21.11.21	Mainz - Köln	1:1

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