Match Info

URUGUAY: PRIMERA DIVISION - APERTURA - ROUND 6

Date: 10 March 2023, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal Parque Liebig's (Fray Bentos)

Referee: Gimenez P. (Uru)


	La Luz		Cerro Largo

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.9	2.55	Watch
	2.75	2.95	2.5	Watch
	3	2.9	2.43
	2.75	2.95	2.5
	2.89	3.15	2.71
	2.88	2.88	2.5
	2.77	3.08	2.57	Watch
	2.8	3	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.78)	2.98 ↑ (2.94)	2.54 ↑ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Luz
32.6%

Draw
31%

Cerro Largo
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.8%

31%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

31.5%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Luz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Cerro Largo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	60%	10%

La Luz - Cerro Largo Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. La Luz will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Cerro Largo will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 13 and 3).

La Luz is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Cerro Largo is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.03.23	Liverpool Montevideo - La Luz	2:3 ✺
27.02.23	La Luz - Montevideo City Torque	1:1 ✺
19.02.23	Defensor Sporting - La Luz	1:0 ✺
13.02.23	La Luz - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:4 ✺
05.02.23	La Luz - Montevideo Wanderers	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WTLLL
- Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.03.23	Cerro Largo - Montevideo Wanderers	0:0 ✺
25.02.23	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Cerro Largo	0:0 ✺
17.02.23	Cerro Largo - Danubio	1:0 ✺
10.02.23	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo	0:0 ✺
04.02.23	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.2 TTWTW

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