Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 26

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Océane (Le Havre)

Referee: Stinat J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Caze TV
Bulgaria	Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Slovakia	Nova Sport 5
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Le Havre		Lyon

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.7	3.35	2.08
	3.6	3.44	2.18
	3.5	3.43	2.13	Watch
	3.6	3.25	2
	3.92	3.54	2.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.64 ↓ (3.83)	3.4 ↓ (3.55)	2.1 ↑ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Havre
26.3%

Draw
28.1%

Lyon
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.7%

26.6%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.2%

27.1%

47.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Havre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	21.4%	71.4%

Le Havre - Lyon Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Le Havre will win (votes: 2 - 7.1%). Lyon will win (votes: 20 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lyon: 54.7% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Le Havre (3.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Lyon (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB, 2nd Half - Le Havre (2.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lyon will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Le Havre (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Lyon (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Diaw M. (G) 7. Nego L. 29. Zagadou S. 93. Sangante A. (C) 27. Vinette E. K. 15. Seko A. 19. Gourna-Douath L. 17. Boufal S. 14. Ndiaye R. 25. Samatta A. 45. Soumare I.	40. Descamps R. (G) 33. Hateboer H. 6. Tessmann T. 19. Niakhate M. 3. Tagliafico N. 23. Morton T. 5. Mangala O. 7. Karabec A. 8. Tolisso C. (C) 16. Abner Vinicius 9. Endrick
Substitutes
8. Kechta Y. 30. Khadra R. 11. Kyeremeh G. 10. Mambimbi F. 78. Mosengo D. N. 77. Mpasi-Nzau L. (G) 32. Pembele T. 33. Quetant K. 18. Zouaoui Y.	39. de Carvalho M. 18. Ghezzal R. 1. Greif D. (G) 34. Hamdani A. 38. Kango S. 30. Konan Y. (G) 44. Merah K. 99. Nartey N. 77. Yaremchuk R.
Coaches
Digard D.	Fonseca P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Karabec A. 🟨,
42', Tagliafico N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Zagadou S. 🟥,
58', Karabec A. ↓, Yaremchuk R. ↑,
63', Samatta A. ↓, Kechta Y. ↑,
68', Vinette E. K. ↓, Zouaoui Y. ↑,
72', Mangala O. ↓, Nartey N. ↑,
74', Fonseca P. 🟨,
80', Hateboer H. ↓, Hamdani A. ↑,
80', Endrick ↓, Ghezzal R. ↑,
80', Tagliafico N. ↓, Kango S. ↑,
83', Tessmann T. 🟨,
84', Boufal S. ↓, Quetant K. ↑,
88', Diaw M. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

Le Havre has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lyon is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Lyon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Lyon could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Le Havre: Ebonog S. (Yellow Cards) Lloris G. (Injury) Toure A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lyon: Fofana M. (Ankle Injury) Himbert R. (Injury) Kluivert R. (Hamstring Injury) Maitland-Niles A. (Injury) Mata C. (Yellow Cards) Moreira A. (Injury) Nuamah E. (Knee Injury) Sulc P. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Le Havre: Doucoure F. (Inactive) Nego L. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Le Havre won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Le Havre won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5. (average 1.5:2.5).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lyon: 3.59% Le Havre: 0.19%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lyon	6	3	2	1	11:4	7	11
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4:7	-3	2

Last Results with these Odds

Lyon - the odds 1.94 are the expected chance of winning is 48.71%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 1
08.03.26	Brest - Le Havre	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Le Havre - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Nantes - Le Havre	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Le Havre - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Le Havre - Strasbourg	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LLLWW
- Olympique Lyon
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Celta de Vigo - Lyon	1:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
08.03.26	Lyon - Paris FC	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
05.03.26	Lyon - Lens	2:3 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
01.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Lyon	3:2 ✺
22.02.26	Strasbourg - Lyon	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
14.12.25	Lyon - Le Havre	1:0
16.03.25	Lyon - Le Havre	4:2
20.10.24	Le Havre - Lyon	0:4
14.01.24	Le Havre - Lyon	3:1
17.09.23	Lyon - Le Havre	0:0

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