Match Info

Date: 23 October 2021, Saturday


	Lecce		Perugia

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.4	3.8	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4.2
	1.92	3.35	4.1	Watch
	1.92	3.25	3.9
	1.93	3.5	4.46
	1.85	3.3	4.4
	1.93	3.45	4.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.8)	3.38 ↓ (3.44)	4.14 ↓ (4.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
49.6%

Draw
27.8%

Perugia
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

26.8%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.1%

21.4%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (+14.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lecce, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-5%)

Lecce - Perugia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

The great teams are gonna meet at this game. The most expected match between two teams from the very top of the group (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Lecce has the most likely position - 1 (17.76%), has project points - 65, has currently - 15, has a very small chance of relegated (1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (49%), has a chance of promoted (41%), has a chance of win league (18%).

Perugia has the most likely position - 13 (7.57%), has project points - 50, has currently - 13, has a small chance of relegated (15%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (27%), has a small chance of promoted (7%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

Lecce in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Perugia is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Lecce is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Lecce won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Lecce won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie B
16.10.21	Ascoli - Lecce	1:1 ✺
01.10.21	Lecce - Monza	3:0 ✺
25.09.21	Cittadella - Lecce	1:2 ✺
21.09.21	Crotone - Lecce	0:3 ✺
18.09.21	Lecce - Alessandria	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 TWWWW
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
16.10.21	Perugia - Brescia	1:0 ✺
03.10.21	Benevento - Perugia	0:0 ✺
26.09.21	Perugia - Alessandria	1:1 ✺
22.09.21	Cremonese - Perugia	0:3 ✺
18.09.21	Perugia - Nuova Cosenza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
22.04.19	Perugia - Lecce	1:2
08.12.18	Lecce - Perugia	0:0
Italian Lega Pro C1/B
02.02.14	Lecce - Perugia	3:4
29.09.13	Perugia - Lecce	2:0

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