Match Info

Serie A - Round 13

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce)

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Football


	Lecce		Torino

	1	X	2
	3	2.9	2.63	Watch
	3.05	2.92	2.62	Watch
	3.2	2.93	2.74
	2.69	3.12	2.78	Watch
	3.23	3	2.69
	3.2	2.9	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↑ (2.74)	2.96 ↓ (3.03)	2.67 ↓ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
31.4%

Draw
32.5%

Torino
36.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.8%

31.6%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

33.6%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Torino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lecce, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Torino than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Lecce - Torino Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Lecce will win (votes: 6 - 21.4%). Torino will win (votes: 6 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 57.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38.8% – 75.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Lecce (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Torino (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Falcone W. (C) 17. Veiga D. 4. Gaspar K. 44. Tiago Gabriel 25. Gallo A. 20. Ramadani Y. 29. Coulibaly L. 50. Pierotti S. 10. Berisha M. 19. Banda L. 9. Stulic N.	81. Israel F. (G) 61. Tameze A. 13. Maripan G. 23. Coco S. 16. Pedersen M. 22. Casadei C. 32. Asllani K. 66. Gineitis G. 25. Nkounkou N. 19. Adams C. 10. Vlasic N. (C)
Substitutes
22. Camarda F. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 28. Gorter O. 14. Helgason T. J. 77. Kaba M. 21. Kouassi C. 93. Maleh Y. 3. Ndaba C. 11. Ndri K. 13. Perez M. 6. Sala A. 32. Samooja J. (G) 5. Siebert J. 23. Sottil R. 7. Tete Morente	7. Aboukhlal Z. 14. Anjorin F. 21. Dembele A. 6. Ilkhan E. 20. Lazaro V. 5. Masina A. 26. Ngonge C. 1. Paleari A. (G) 71. Popa M. (G) 91. Zapata D.
Coaches
Di Francesco E.	Baroni M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Coulibaly L. ⚽, Berisha M. (A),
22', 2 - 0, Banda L. ⚽, Berisha M. (A),
37', Gineitis G. ↓, Zapata D. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', 2 - 1, Adams C. ⚽, Vlasic N. (A),
60', Tameze A. ↓, Ngonge C. ↑,
65', Pierotti S. ↓, Tete Morente ↑,
65', Banda L. ↓, Sottil R. ↑,
70', Pedersen M. ↓, Masina A. ↑,
70', Vlasic N. ↓, Aboukhlal Z. ↑,
70', Nkounkou N. ↓, Lazaro V. ↑,
78', Casadei C. 🟨,
80', Ramadani Y. 🟨,
81', Veiga D. 🟨,
83', Berisha M. ↓, Kaba M. ↑,
83', Coco S. 🟨,
90+2', Stulic N. ↓, Ndaba C. ↑,
90:00, Asllani K. (Pen),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 1.

Lecce is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Torino has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Lecce: Jean G. (Knee Injury) Pierret B. (Muscle Injury) Rafia H. (Inactive)

There will not play in Torino: Savva Z. (Knee Injury) Sazonov S. (Knee Injury) Schuurs P. (Knee Injury) Simeone G. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lecce: Marchwinski F. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Torino: Ilic I. (Knee Injury) Ismajli A. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lecce won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
23.11.25	Lazio - Lecce	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Lecce - Verona	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Fiorentina - Lecce	0:1 ✺
28.10.25	Lecce - Napoli	0:1 ✺
25.10.25	Udinese - Lecce	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LTWLL
- Torino FC
Italian Serie A
24.11.25	Torino - Como	1:5 ✺
08.11.25	Juventus - Torino	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Torino - Pisa	2:2 ✺
29.10.25	Bologna - Torino	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Torino - Genoa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 LTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
18.05.25	Lecce - Torino	1:0
15.09.24	Torino - Lecce	0:0
16.02.24	Torino - Lecce	2:0
28.10.23	Lecce - Torino	0:1
12.03.23	Lecce - Torino	0:2
05.09.22	Torino - Lecce	1:0
Coppa Italia
28.10.20	Torino - Lecce	3:1 ET

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