Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 32

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Location: Stadion Poznan (Poznań)

Referee: Frankowski B. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	FOX Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Sporty TV
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 4, Ekstraklasa TV
Spain	Gol Play
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Lech Poznań		Arka Gdynia

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.25	7	Watch
	1.34	5.25	7.75
	1.33	5.15	7.3	Watch
	1.38	5.47	7.71
	1.37	5.61	7.25	Watch
	1.3	5	7.5
	1.33	5.15	7.9	Watch
	1.38	3.81	6.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.39)	5.09 ↑ (3.82)	7.41 ↑ (6.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
69.2%

Draw
18.3%

Arka Gdynia
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.6%

23.2%

13.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.3%

21.6%

12.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lech Poznań's performance.

Arka Gdynia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lech Poznań - Arka Gdynia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lech Poznań will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 27. Monka W. 16. Milic A. 15. Gurgul M. 6. Ouma T. 43. Kozubal A. 10. Walemark P. 77. Palma L. 14. Bengtsson L. 9. Ishak M. (C)	1. Grobelny J. (G) 23. Hermoso K. 29. Marcjanik M. 94. Gojny D. (C) 4. Zator D. 6. Perea L. 35. Jakubczyk K. 33. Abramowicz D. 7. Kubiak O. 19. Gutkovskis V. 37. Kerk S.
Substitutes
7. Agnero Y. 1. Andreev P. (G) 20. Gumny R. 11. Hakans D. 88. Ismaheel T. 24. Jagiello F. 22. Murawski R. 33. Pruchniewski M. (G) 99. Rodriguez P. 72. Skrzypczak M.	99. Espiau Hernandez E. D. 11. Kocyla D. 2. Navarro M. 27. Oliveira J. 31. Rusyn N. 22. Rzuchowski M. 8. Sidibe A. 3. Szota S. 21. Szysz P.
Coaches
Frederiksen N.	Banasik D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Gojny D. 🟨,
25', Perea L. ↓, Rzuchowski M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Milic A. ↓, Gumny R. ↑,
46', Ouma T. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
52', 0 - 1, Hermoso K. ⚽,
57', 1 - 1, Palma L. ⚽, Ishak M. (A),
61', Kubiak O. ↓, Rusyn N. ↑,
61', Gutkovskis V. ↓, Espiau Hernandez E. D. ↑,
64', Bengtsson L. ↓, Rodriguez P. ↑,
65', Zator D. 🟨,
82', Kozubal A. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
82', Palma L. ↓, Hakans D. ↑,
85', Kerk S. ↓, Szysz P. ↑,
85', Abramowicz D. ↓, Kocyla D. ↑,
88', Gumny R. 🟨,
90+4', Grobelny J. 🟨,
90+8', Rusyn N. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lech won 1.

Lech is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arka is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lech may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lech is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Lech: Douglas A. (Ribs Injury) Gholizadeh A. (Knee Injury) Lisman K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Lech: Skrzypczak M. (Inactive) Thordarson G. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Arka: Kubiak O. (Injury)

We predict that Lech will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Lech won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Lech won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:5. (average 1:0.7).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Lech Poznan: 47.5%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lech Poznan	9	7	1	1	21:8	13	22

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.05.26	Motor Lublin - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
26.04.26	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	4:0 ✺
18.04.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Lech Poznań - GKS Katowice	3:3 ✺
04.04.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWTT
- Arka Gdynia
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.04.26	Piast Gliwice - Arka Gdynia	4:1 ✺
19.04.26	Arka Gdynia - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:3 ✺
12.04.26	Cracovia - Arka Gdynia	2:2 ✺
07.04.26	Arka Gdynia - Zagłębie Lubin	3:1 ✺
22.03.26	Korona Kielce - Arka Gdynia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
09.11.25	Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań	3:1
Polish Cup
07.12.23	Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań	0:1
Club Friendly
09.07.21	Lech Poznań - Arka Gdynia	0:2
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.12.19	Lech Poznań - Arka Gdynia	1:1
17.08.19	Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań	0:0
03.03.19	Lech Poznań - Arka Gdynia	1:0
21.09.18	Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań	1:0

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