Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 19

Date: 7 December 2024, Saturday

Location: Elland Road (Leeds)

Referee: Donohue M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
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Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	DAZN Canada
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Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, Free
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	FanCode, FanCode
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 2
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	Viaplay
Nigeria	Sporty TV
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 3 North
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Peru	Disney+, Fox Sports 2
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	mio Sports 1
Slovakia	Voyo
South-america	ESPN 5 South
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra, V Sport Xtra
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports+, Sky Ultra
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Disney+


	Leeds United		Derby County

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.75	9.5	Watch
	1.34	4.8	10
	1.34	4.92	9.76	Watch
	1.33	5.05	11.07
	1.34	4.82	10.22	Watch
	1.33	4.8	11
	1.35	4.85	9.5	Watch
	1.34	4.92	9.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.39)	4.86 ↑ (4.63)	10.1 ↑ (8.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leeds United
71.1%

Draw
19.5%

Derby County
9.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68%

20.4%

11.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.7%

19.3%

11%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Leeds United - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: Leeds United will win (17 of 18 users predict this - 94.44%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.85% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Meslier I. (G) 2. Bogle J. 6. Rodon J. 5. Struijk P. (C) 3. Firpo J. 22. Tanaka A. 8. Rothwell J. 7. James D. 11. Aaronson B. 14. Solomon M. 10. Piroe J.	1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 12. Phillips N. 35. Nelson C. 6. Cashin E. 2. Wilson K. 8. Osborn B. 16. Thompson L. 3. Forsyth C. 19. Jackson K. 11. Mendez-Laing N. (C) 10. Yates J.
Substitutes
4. Ampadu E. 9. Bamford P. 26. Darlow K. (G) 29. Gnonto W. 23. Guilavogui J. 19. Joseph M. 17. Ramazani L. 33. Schmidt I. 39. Wober M.	7. Barkhuizen T. 27. Blackett-Taylor C. 5. Bradley S. 39. Brown D. 9. Collins J. 17. Goudmijn K. 18. Harness M. 31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J.
Coaches
Farke D.	Warne P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
15', Jackson K. 🟨,
21', Firpo J. ↓, Wober M. ↑,
39', 1 - 0, Rodon J. ⚽, Rothwell J. (A),
44', 2 - 0, Wober M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Harness M. ↑,
65', Jackson K. ↓, Goudmijn K. ↑,
68', Aaronson B. ↓, Joseph M. ↑,
68', Solomon M. ↓, Gnonto W. ↑,
82', Wilson K. ↓, Ward J. ↑,
82', Thompson L. ↓, Barkhuizen T. ↑,
82', Yates J. ↓, Collins J. ↑,
85', Rothwell J. ↓, Guilavogui J. ↑,
85', James D. ↓, Ramazani L. ↑,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Leeds won 3.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Leeds is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Leeds: Ampadu E. (Knee Injury) Byram S. (Muscle Injury) Gelhardt J. (Hip Injury) Gruev I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Derby: Adams E. (Yellow Cards) Chirewa T. (Thigh Injury) Elder C. (Yellow Cards) Nyambe R. (Knee Injury) Ozoh D. (Hamstring Injury) Rooney J. (Knee Injury)

Last 19 head-to-head matches Leeds won 7 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 27:28 (average 1.4:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Leeds won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 13:14 (average 1.3:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeds United
English League Championship
30.11.24	Blackburn Rovers - Leeds United	1:0 ✺
27.11.24	Leeds United - Luton Town	3:0 ✺
24.11.24	Swansea City - Leeds United	3:4 ✺
09.11.24	Leeds United - Queens Park Rangers	2:0 ✺
06.11.24	Millwall - Leeds United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWWWL
- Derby County
English League Championship
01.12.24	Derby County - Sheffield Wednesday	1:2 ✺
27.11.24	Derby County - Swansea City	1:2 ✺
23.11.24	Preston North End - Derby County	1:1 ✺
09.11.24	Derby County - Plymouth Argyle	1:1 ✺
06.11.24	Coventry City - Derby County	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
19.07.20	Derby County - Leeds United	1:3
21.09.19	Leeds United - Derby County	1:1
15.05.19	Leeds United - Derby County	2:4
11.05.19	Derby County - Leeds United	0:1
11.01.19	Leeds United - Derby County	2:0
11.08.18	Derby County - Leeds United	1:4
21.02.18	Derby County - Leeds United	2:2

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