Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 15

Date: 9 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Hooper S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Net4+


	Derby County		Plymouth Argyle

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.8	4.75
	1.72	3.9	4.6
	1.72	3.91	4.63
	1.75	3.93	4.75
	1.75	3.87	4.56	Watch
	1.75	3.8	4.75
	1.76	3.88	4.43	Watch
	1.72	3.91	4.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.75)	3.88 ↓ (3.89)	4.64 ↑ (4.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
54.9%

Draw
24.6%

Plymouth Argyle
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

24.4%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

23.4%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Plymouth Argyle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

The ML Model estimate for Plymouth Argyle aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88%	0%	12%

Derby County - Plymouth Argyle Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (22 of 25 users predict this - 88%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.26% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 2. Wilson K. 35. Nelson C. 12. Phillips N. 3. Forsyth C. 16. Thompson L. 32. Adams E. 19. Jackson K. 17. Goudmijn K. 11. Mendez-Laing N. (C) 10. Yates J.	31. Grimshaw D. (G) 29. Sorinola M. 6. Szucs K. 5. Pleguezuelo J. 2. Mumba B. 20. Randell A. (C) 18. Gyabi D. 10. Whittaker M. 11. Wright C. 15. Bundu M. 14. Obafemi M.
Substitutes
7. Barkhuizen T. 27. Blackett-Taylor C. 5. Bradley S. 39. Brown D. 9. Collins J. 18. Harness M. 8. Osborn B. 31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J.	28. Al Hajj R. 27. Forshaw A. 19. Gray A. 9. Hardie R. 4. Houghton J. 35. Issaka F. 25. Marosi M. (G) 3. Ogbeta N. 44. Palsson V.
Coaches
Warne P.	Rooney W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Yates J. ⚽,
41', 1 - 1, Randell A. ⚽,
42', Bundu M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Jackson K. 🟨,
64', Wilson K. ↓, Osborn B. ↑,
64', Goudmijn K. ↓, Harness M. ↑,
65', Sorinola M. 🟨,
68', Mumba B. 🟨,
68', Wright C. ↓, Issaka F. ↑,
69', Bundu M. ↓, Hardie R. ↑,
78', Obafemi M. ↓, Forshaw A. ↑,
79', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Brown D. ↑,
85', Grimshaw D. 🟨,
90+1', Sorinola M. ↓, Palsson V. ↑,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 13 and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).

Recent matches Derby is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Plymouth is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Plymouth could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Derby have a series of guest games.

In this match Derby is a favorite.

There will not play in Derby: Barkhuizen T. (Calf Injury) Cashin E. (Yellow Cards) Chirewa T. (Thigh Injury) Nyambe R. (Knee Injury) Ozoh D. (Hamstring Injury) Rooney J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Plymouth: Edwards J. (Muscle Injury) Galloway B. (Ankle Injury) Gibson L. (Thigh Injury) Hazard C. (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Derby won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:5 (average 1.5:2.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
06.11.24	Coventry City - Derby County	1:2 ✺
02.11.24	Stoke City - Derby County	2:1 ✺
26.10.24	Derby County - Hull City	1:1 ✺
22.10.24	Oxford United - Derby County	1:1 ✺
19.10.24	Millwall - Derby County	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WLTTT
- Plymouth Argyle
English League Championship
05.11.24	Plymouth Argyle - Portsmouth	1:0 ✺
02.11.24	Leeds United - Plymouth Argyle	3:0 ✺
26.10.24	Plymouth Argyle - Preston North End	3:3 ✺
23.10.24	Millwall - Plymouth Argyle	1:0 ✺
19.10.24	Cardiff City - Plymouth Argyle	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
07.03.23	Plymouth Argyle - Derby County	2:1
03.09.22	Derby County - Plymouth Argyle	2:3

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