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Leeds United - Liverpool

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Match Info

  • Premier League - Round 15
  • Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: Elland Road (Leeds) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
    • CountryKick-OffTV Channels
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    Leeds United Liverpool
    Leeds United Liverpool
    1 X 2
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    (Initially)    		 4.51 ↑
    (4.42)    		 3.97 ↑
    (3.89)    		 1.76 ↓
    (1.78)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

    • The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Leeds United
    21.3%    		Draw
    24.2%    		Liverpool
    54.5%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    21.6% 24.6% 53.8%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    19.7% 25.2% 55.1%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Leeds United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
  • Liverpool has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liverpool than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    22.9% 6.2% 70.8%

    Leeds United - Liverpool Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Leeds will win (votes: 11 - 24.4%). Liverpool will win (votes: 32 - 71.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 4.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Liverpool: 57.9% โ€“ 84.3%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH -0.5 - Leeds (3.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) ๐Ÿฅˆ Silver Tip.
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) ๐Ÿฅ‰ Bronze Tip.
    • DNB - Liverpool (1.37) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Liverpool will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) ๐Ÿฅ‰ Bronze Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Liverpool (votes: 5 - 71.4%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. BrazilLucas Perri (G)
      6. WalesRodon J.
    15. SloveniaBijol J.
      5. NetherlandsStruijk P.
      2. EnglandBogle J.
    18. GermanyStach A.
      4. WalesAmpadu E. (C)
    44. BulgariaGruev I.
      3. SwedenGudmundsson G.
      9. EnglandCalvert-Lewin D.
    19. SwitzerlandOkafor N.
    		  1. BrazilAlisson (G)
    12. NorthernBradley C.
      4. Netherlandsvan Dijk V. (C)
      5. FranceKonate I.
      6. HungaryKerkez M.
    38. NetherlandsGravenberch R.
    17. EnglandJones C.
      8. HungarySzoboszlai D.
      7. GermanyWirtz F.
    18. NetherlandsGakpo C.
    22. FranceEkitike H.
    Substitutes
    11. USAAaronson B.
    23. BelgiumBornauw S.
    25. EnglandByram S.
    26. WalesDarlow K. (G)
    29. ItalyGnonto W.
    20. EnglandHarrison J.
    24. EnglandJustin J.
    10. NetherlandsPiroe J.
    22. JapanTanaka A.
    		14. ItalyChiesa F.
      3. JapanEndo W.
      2. EnglandGomez J.
      9. SwedenIsak A.
    10. ArgentinaMac Allister A.
    25. GeorgiaMamardashvili G. (G)
    73. EnglandNgumoha R.
    26. ScotlandRobertson A.
    11. EgyptSalah M.
    Coaches
         GermanyFarke D.
    		     NetherlandsSlot A.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)
    • 20', Bogle J. 🟨,
    • 26', Gudmundsson G. 🟨,
    • 45+3', Bradley C. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (3 - 3)
    • 48', 0 - 1, Ekitike H. ⚽,
    • 50', 0 - 2, Ekitike H. ⚽, Bradley C. (A),
    • 65', Okafor N. ↓, Gnonto W. ↑,
    • 65', Bijol J. ↓, Aaronson B. ↑,
    • 65', Gruev I. ↓, Tanaka A. ↑,
    • 68', Bradley C. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
    • 68', Wirtz F. ↓, Mac Allister A. ↑,
    • 73', 1 - 2, Calvert-Lewin D. (Penalty Awarded),
    • 75', 2 - 2, Stach A. ⚽, Aaronson B. (A),
    • 80', 2 - 3, Szoboszlai D. ⚽, Gravenberch R. (A),
    • 81', van Dijk V. 🟨,
    • 83', Gakpo C. ↓, Endo W. ↑,
    • 84', Ekitike H. ↓, Isak A. ↑,
    • 87', Ampadu E. ↓, Piroe J. ↑,
    • 89', Struijk P. 🟨,
    • 90+1', Gomez J. 🟨,
    • 90+3', Bogle J. ↓, Bornauw S. ↑,
    • 90+6', 3 - 3, Tanaka A. ⚽,

    Preview

  • The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 and 9).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 1.
  • The current form of both teams is below expectations.
  • Leeds may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
  • In this match, Liverpool is considered a favorite.
  • There will not play in Leeds: James D. (Hamstring Injury) Longstaff S. (Calf Injury)
  • There will not play in Liverpool: Bajcetic S. (Hamstring Injury) Chambers L. (Back Injury) Frimpong J. (Hamstring Injury) Leoni G. (Knee Injury) Scanlon C. (Hamstring Injury)
  • There are questionable in Leeds: Calvert-Lewin D. (Calf Injury) Nmecha L. (Thigh Injury)
  • There are questionable in Liverpool: Bradley C. (Muscle Injury)
  • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:23. (average 1:3.3).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Leeds won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:10. (average 0.7:3.3).

    • Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Leeds United
    English Premier League
    03.12.25 Leeds United - Chelsea 3:1 ✺
    29.11.25 Manchester City - Leeds United 3:2 ✺
    23.11.25 Leeds United - Aston Villa 1:2 ✺
    09.11.25 Nottingham Forest - Leeds United 3:1 ✺
    01.11.25 Brighton & Hove Albion - Leeds United 3:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1
    WLLLL
    - Liverpool FC
    English Premier League
    03.12.25 Liverpool - Sunderland 1:1 ✺
    30.11.25 West Ham United - Liverpool 0:2 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    26.11.25 Liverpool - PSV Eindhoven 1:4 ✺
    English Premier League
    22.11.25 Liverpool - Nottingham Forest 0:3 ✺
    09.11.25 Manchester City - Liverpool 3:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6
    TWLLL
    Latest Head to Head
    English Premier League
    17.04.23 Leeds United - Liverpool 1:6
    29.10.22 Liverpool - Leeds United 1:2
    23.02.22 Liverpool - Leeds United 6:0
    12.09.21 Leeds United - Liverpool 0:3
    19.04.21 Leeds United - Liverpool 1:1
    12.09.20 Liverpool - Leeds United 4:3
    English League Cup
    29.11.16 Liverpool - Leeds United 2:0
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Leeds United
    English Premier League
    07.11.26 Leeds United - Tottenham Hotspur ✺
    31.10.26 Bournemouth - Leeds United ✺
    - Liverpool FC
    UEFA Champions League
    04.11.26 Fenerbahรงe - Liverpool ✺
    English Premier League
    01.11.26 Liverpool - Arsenal ✺

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