Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga - Round 11

Date: 27 October 2024, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Municipal de Butarque (Leganes) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Lopez M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	New World Sport 3, SuperSport LaLiga
Armenia	17:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
Bosnia And Herzegovina	14:00	Arena Premium 3
Bulgaria	15:00	Max Sport 4
Croatia	14:00	Arena Sport 6
Czech Republic	14:00	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	14:00	TV2 Play
Finland	15:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Max
France	14:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4
Germany	14:00	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	15:00	Nova Sports 1
Hungary	14:00	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Israel	15:00	ONE Sport
Italy	14:00	DAZN Italia
Malta	14:00	TSN Malta 4
Mexico	07:00	Sky Sport
Netherlands	14:00	Ziggo Sport 2
Norway	14:00	TV2 Play
Portugal	13:00	DAZN 5
Romania	15:00	Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	16:00	MATCH! Futbol 2
Slovakia	14:00	Voyo
Slovenia	14:00	Arena Sport 2
Spain	14:00	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga 1
Sweden	14:00	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	14:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Tanzania	16:00	Azam Sports 4
Turkey	16:00	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	15:00	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United Kingdom	13:00	LaLiga TV, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Usa	09:00	ESPN+
International	13:00	DirecTV Sports


	Leganés		Celta de Vigo

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.3	2.1	Watch
	3.7	3.2	2.1
	3.75	3.25	2.15	Watch
	3.9	3.28	2.14
	3.7	3.27	2.18	Watch
	3.7	3.1	2.2
	3.91	3.29	2.19	Watch
	3.75	3.25	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.76 ↑ (3.01)	3.24 ↑ (3.18)	2.15 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

Watch this match and Spanish LaLiga with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: ESPN Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Leganés
25.6%

Draw
29.7%

Celta de Vigo
44.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.9%

30.2%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

31.1%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leganés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leganés's form might have worsened.

Celta de Vigo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Celta de Vigo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leganés than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leganés, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Celta de Vigo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.1%	21.1%	36.8%

Leganés - Celta de Vigo Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Leganés will win (votes: 16 - 44.4%). Celta will win (votes: 13 - 36.1%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 19.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leganés: 28.2% – 60.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Dmitrovic M. (G) 2. Altimira A. 3. Saenz J. (C) 22. Nastasic M. 15. Franquesa E. 8. Cisse S. 5. Tapia R. 17. Neyou Y. 10. Raba D. 18. Haller S. 19. Garcia D.	13. Guaita V. (G) 22. Manquillo J. 2. Starfelt C. 20. Alonso M. 3. Mingueza O. 6. Moriba I. 33. Sotelo H. 30. Alvarez H. 10. Aspas I. (C) 7. Iglesias B. 17. Bamba J.
Substitutes
14. Brasanac D. 24. Chicco J. 11. Cruz J. 9. de la Fuente M. 6. Gonzalez S. 20. Hernandez J. 21. Lopez R. 23. Munir El Haddadi 4. Porozo J. 7. Rodriguez O. 12. Rosier V. 1. Soriano J. (G)	8. Beltran F. 5. Carreira S. 11. Cervi F. 24. Dominguez C. 9. Douvikas A. 18. Duran P. 12. Gonzalez A. 21. Ristic M. 25. Rodriguez D. 32. Rodriguez J. 19. Swedberg W. 1. Villar I. (G)
Coaches
Jimenez B.	Giraldez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Saenz J. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
54', Cisse S. ↓, Brasanac D. ↑,
54', Haller S. ↓, de la Fuente M. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Garcia D. ⚽, Raba D. (A),
62', Starfelt C. 🟨,
62', Iglesias B. ↓, Douvikas A. ↑,
63', Moriba I. ↓, Rodriguez D. ↑,
63', Bamba J. ↓, Swedberg W. ↑,
65', Garcia D. ↓, Munir El Haddadi ↑,
69', Raba D. ↓, Cruz J. ↑,
71', Tapia R. 🟨,
75', Neyou Y. 🟨,
78', 2 - 0, Brasanac D. ⚽, de la Fuente M. (A),
80', Sotelo H. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
80', Manquillo J. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
82', 3 - 0, Gonzalez S. ⚽, Cruz J. (A),
85', Mingueza O. 🟨,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Leganés won 2.

Recent matches Leganés is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Celta is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Leganés could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Celta will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Leganés: Garcia N. (Injury)

There will not play in Celta: Jailson (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Celta: de la Torre L. (Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Leganés won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5:6 (average 0.6:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Leganés won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:4 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Leganés
Spanish LaLiga
20.10.24	Atlético Madrid - Leganés	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
10.10.24	Leganés - Valladolid	3:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
04.10.24	Leganés - Valencia	0:0 ✺
28.09.24	Rayo Vallecano - Leganés	1:1 ✺
22.09.24	Getafe - Leganés	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWTTT
- Celta de Vigo
Spanish LaLiga
19.10.24	Celta de Vigo - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
05.10.24	Las Palmas - Celta de Vigo	0:1 ✺
29.09.24	Celta de Vigo - Girona	1:1 ✺
26.09.24	Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid	0:1 ✺
22.09.24	Athletic Bilbao - Celta de Vigo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
22.02.20	Celta de Vigo - Leganés	1:0
08.12.19	Leganés - Celta de Vigo	3:2
27.04.19	Leganés - Celta de Vigo	0:0
14.12.18	Celta de Vigo - Leganés	0:0
14.04.18	Leganés - Celta de Vigo	1:0
24.11.17	Celta de Vigo - Leganés	1:0
28.01.17	Leganés - Celta de Vigo	0:2

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