Match Info

Championship - Round 24

Date: 29 December 2025, Monday

Location: King Power Stadium (Leicester)

Referee: Ward G. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Leicester City		Derby County

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.25	3.5	Watch
	2.12	3.35	3.54	Watch
	2.12	3.36	3.53	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.5
	2.1	3.24	3.54	Watch
	2.12	3.25	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (2.03)	3.26 ↑ (3.23)	3.55 ↓ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leicester City
44.7%

Draw
28.8%

Derby County
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

29.1%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

28.3%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leicester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leicester City than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	27.5%	12.5%

Leicester City - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Leicester will win (votes: 24 - 61.5%). Derby will win (votes: 5 - 12.8%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 25.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leicester: 46.2% – 76.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Leicester (3.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Derby (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Leicester (2.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Leicester City will win (9 of 12 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Leicester (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Derby (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stolarczyk J. (G) 17. Choudhury H. (C) 5. Okoli C. 4. Nelson B. 33. Thomas L. 22. Skipp O. 6. James J. 7. Fatawu I. 14. De Cordova-Reid B. 10. Mavididi S. 9. Ayew J.	1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 6. Langas S. 28. Sanderson D. 5. Clarke M. 32. Adams E. (C) 16. Thompson L. 42. Clark B. 20. Elder C. 25. Brereton Diaz B. 7. Agyemang P. 10. Brewster R.
Substitutes
56. Aluko O. 31. Begovic A. (G) 18. Carranza J. 3. Faes W. 28. Monga J. 25. Page L. 21. Pereira R. 30. Ramsey A. 39. Thomas S.	4. Batth D. 11. Blackett-Taylor C. 3. Forsyth C. 19. Jackson K. 35. Nelson C. 12. O'Donnell R. (G) 15. Salvesen L. 27. Travis L. 14. Weimann A.
Coaches
Cifuentes M.	Eustace J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, De Cordova-Reid B. ⚽, Fatawu I. (A),
9', 1 - 1, Brewster R. ⚽, Elder C. (A),
41', 2 - 1, James J. ⚽, Thomas L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Choudhury H. ↓, Pereira R. ↑,
65', De Cordova-Reid B. ↓, Ramsey A. ↑,
65', Ayew J. ↓, Thomas S. ↑,
67', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
67', Brewster R. ↓, Blackett-Taylor C. ↑,
69', Ramsey A. ↓, Page L. ↑,
69', Fatawu I. ↓, Monga J. ↑,
73', Clark B. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
83', James J. 🟨,
89', Elder C. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
89', Adams E. ↓, Travis L. ↑,
90+6', Thompson L. 🟨,
90+6', Jackson K. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 14 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leicester won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Derby may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Leicester might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Leicester: Daka P. (International duty) Kristiansen V. (Knock) Soumare B. (Knee Injury) Souttar H. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Derby: Beck O. (Hamstring Injury) Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury) Morris C. (Ankle Injury) Ozoh D. (Thigh Injury) Travis L. (Calf Injury) Ward J. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Leicester: Vestergaard J. (Inactive) Winks H. (Injury)

There are questionable in Derby: Langas S. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Leicester won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 24:10. (average 2.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Leicester won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:4. (average 3.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leicester City
English League Championship
26.12.25	Leicester City - Watford	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Queens Park Rangers - Leicester City	4:1 ✺
13.12.25	Leicester City - Ipswich Town	3:1 ✺
10.12.25	Bristol City - Leicester City	2:2 ✺
06.12.25	Derby County - Leicester City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LLWTW
- Derby County
English League Championship
26.12.25	Birmingham City - Derby County	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Derby County - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
15.12.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Derby County	0:3 ✺
10.12.25	Derby County - Millwall	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Derby County - Leicester City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
06.12.25	Derby County - Leicester City	1:3
Club Friendly
23.07.22	Derby County - Leicester City	1:3
English FA Cup
08.02.17	Leicester City - Derby County	3:1 ET
27.01.17	Derby County - Leicester City	2:2
English League Championship
10.01.14	Leicester City - Derby County	4:1
English League Cup
24.09.13	Leicester City - Derby County	2:1
English League Championship
17.08.13	Derby County - Leicester City	0:1

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