Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 8

Date: 29 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

Referee: Sylwestrzak D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 8
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, Free
Germany	RTL+
Greece	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 8
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	Sport 2
Iceland	SÝN Sport, Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	beIN Connect
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 9
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Premier Football 5
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 8, TNT Sports Extra
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	VIX App


	Lille		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.6	3.8
	1.95	3.3	4.1
	2	3.5	4
	2.02	3.47	4.04
	2.06	3.57	3.55	Watch
	1.91	3.4	3.75
	1.99	3.68	3.88
	1.96	3.6	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.96)	3.52 ↑ (3.37)	3.87 ↓ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lille
48.2%

Draw
27.1%

Freiburg
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

28.4%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

30.3%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.9%	31.2%	20.8%

Lille - Freiburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Lille will win (votes: 23 - 47.9%). Freiburg will win (votes: 10 - 20.8%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 31.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lille: 33.8% – 62%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Lille (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Freiburg (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Tie (votes: 9 - 52.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 3 - 60%) .

DNB - Freiburg (2.64) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Freiburg (1.81) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.5 - Freiburg (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Lille (votes: 5 - 21.7%). Freiburg (votes: 9 - 39.1%). Tie (votes: 9 - 39.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ozer B. (G) 22. Santos T. 23. Mandi A. 3. Ngoy N. 24. Verdonk C. 17. Mukau N. 21. Andre B. (C) 32. Bouaddi A. 27. Correia F. 10. Haraldsson H. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 43. Ogbus B. 30. Gunter C. (C) 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 19. Beste J. 14. Suzuki Y. 32. Grifo V. 20. Adamu J.
Substitutes
4. Alexsandro 39. Baret L. 16. Bodart A. (G) 42. Boussadia S. 14. Broholm M. 35. Diaoune S. 9. Giroud O. 43. Lachaab Y. 60. Lanssade Z. (G) 18. Mbemba Ch. 15. Perraud R.	27. Hofler N. 24. Huth J. (G) 22. Irie C. 5. Jung A. 33. Makengo J. 31. Matanovic I. 21. Muller F. (G) 6. Osterhage P. 7. Scherhant D. 65. Steinmann K.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Grifo V. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
60', Adamu J. ↓, Matanovic I. ↑,
72', Andre B. 🟨,
72', Beste J. ↓, Irie C. ↑,
74', Eggestein M. 🟥,
82', Correia F. ↓, Giroud O. ↑,
82', Verdonk C. ↓, Perraud R. ↑,
83', Manzambi J. ↓, Osterhage P. ↑,
83', Suzuki Y. ↓, Jung A. ↑,
86', Haraldsson H. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 0, Giroud O. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Lille is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Freiburg is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lille will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lille: Bentaleb N. (Injury) Gomes A. (Inactive) Igamane H. (Knee Injury) Meunier T. (Muscle Injury) Sahraoui O. (Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There are questionable in Lille: Andre B. (Injury)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Kubler L. (Injury) Lienhart P. (Abdominal strain)

We predict that Freiburg will win today's game, with odds of 3.83.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
25.01.26	Lille - Strasbourg	1:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Celta de Vigo - Lille	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
16.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Lille	3:0 ✺
Coupe De France
11.01.26	Lille - Lyon	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
03.01.26	Lille - Rennes	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
25.01.26	Freiburg - Köln	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Freiburg - Maccabi Tel Aviv	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
18.01.26	Augsburg - Freiburg	2:2 ✺
14.01.26	RB Leipzig - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWTLW

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