Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 17

Date: 14 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)

Referee: Hartmann R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Brazil	Caze TV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 6
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	Viaplay
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malta	TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport PPV 2, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Sport TV2, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4, True ID, True Premier Football 4
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	RB Leipzig		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.9	4.33	Watch
	1.82	3.9	4
	1.75	3.7	4.7	Watch
	1.74	3.89	4.63	Watch
	1.73	3.7	4.33	Watch
	1.8	4	4.78	Watch
	1.76	4	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.81)	3.87 ↓ (4)	4.44 ↑ (4.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
54%

Draw
24.6%

Freiburg
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.6%

23.8%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

24.8%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Freiburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.5%	7.1%	8.3%

RB Leipzig - Freiburg Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - RB Leipzig (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - RB Leipzig (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (71 of 84 users predict this - 84.52%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.78% – 92.26%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): RB Leipzig will win (30 of 34 users predict this - 88.24%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 36 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 32 - 88.9%). Freiburg (votes: 2 - 5.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 5.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 4.

Recent performances by RB Leipzig have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Freiburg is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Freiburg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, RB Leipzig is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Bakayoko J. (Calf Injury) Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Klostermann L. (Illness)

There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness) Lienhart P. (Abdominal strain)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Dinkci E. (Muscle Injury) Rosenfelder M. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 13 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 46:19. (average 2.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 24:7. (average 2.7:0.8).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

RB Leipzig: 3.03% Freiburg: 0.77%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12:3	9	10
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9:5	4	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
20.12.25	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3 ✺
12.12.25	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
06.12.25	RB Leipzig - Eintracht Frankfurt	6:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
02.12.25	RB Leipzig - Magdeburg	3:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
28.11.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - RB Leipzig	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLWWT
- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
10.01.26	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Wolfsburg - Freiburg	3:4 ✺
14.12.25	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Freiburg - Red Bull Salzburg	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Heidenheim - Freiburg	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
08.03.25	Freiburg - RB Leipzig	0:0
26.10.24	RB Leipzig - Freiburg	3:1
06.04.24	Freiburg - RB Leipzig	1:4
12.11.23	RB Leipzig - Freiburg	3:1
06.05.23	Freiburg - RB Leipzig	0:1
German DFB Pokal
02.05.23	Freiburg - RB Leipzig	1:5
German Bundesliga
09.11.22	RB Leipzig - Freiburg	3:1

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