Match Info

Date: 23 February 2021, Tuesday


	Lincoln City		Swindon Town

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.2	6.5
	1.5	3.9	6.75
	1.55	3.8	7
	1.52	3.95	5.8
	1.54	4.01	7.11
	1.47	4	6.5
	1.57	4.15	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.46)	4 ↓ (4.27)	6.64 ↓ (6.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lincoln City
62.1%

Draw
23.6%

Swindon Town
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

22.1%

13.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

13.9%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lincoln City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lincoln City than the current prediction. (-21.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lincoln City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Swindon Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69%	10.3%	20.7%

Lincoln City - Swindon Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Lincoln will win (votes: 20 - 69%). Swindon will win (votes: 6 - 20.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lincoln: 52.2% – 85.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Lincoln has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (47%), has a chance of promoted (48%), has a chance of win league (22%).

Swindon has a chance of relegated (45%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Swindon could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Lincoln have a series of guest games.

In this match Lincoln is absolute favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lincoln won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Lincoln won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lincoln City
English League One
20.02.21	Wigan Athletic - Lincoln City	1:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
17.02.21	Sunderland - Lincoln City	2:1 penalties ✺
English League One
14.02.21	Lincoln City - Accrington Stanley	2:2 ✺
09.02.21	Hull City - Lincoln City	0:0 ✺
05.02.21	Gillingham - Lincoln City	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLTTW
- Swindon Town
English League One
20.02.21	Swindon Town - Crewe Alexandra	2:1 ✺
09.02.21	Portsmouth - Swindon Town	2:0 ✺
06.02.21	Swindon Town - Shrewsbury Town	0:1 ✺
02.02.21	Swindon Town - Wigan Athletic	1:0 ✺
30.01.21	Hull City - Swindon Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
24.11.20	Swindon Town - Lincoln City	0:1
English League Two
12.01.19	Swindon Town - Lincoln City	2:2
11.08.18	Lincoln City - Swindon Town	4:1
03.02.18	Lincoln City - Swindon Town	2:2
17.10.17	Swindon Town - Lincoln City	0:1

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