Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 2 - Round 27

Date: 15 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade du Moustoir (Lorient)

Referee: Ben El Hadj Salem H. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lorient		Bastia

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.3	4.5	Watch
	1.77	3.4	4.6
	1.81	3.4	4.5
	1.7	3.7	4.95
	1.74	3.49	4.89	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.6
	1.76	3.52	5	Watch
	1.81	3.4	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.72)	3.44 ↓ (3.51)	4.69 ↓ (4.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorient
52.9%

Draw
27.2%

Bastia
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

26.7%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

28.5%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorient, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Lorient - Bastia Predictions

Users Predictions: Lorient will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
38. Mvogo Y. (G) 2. Igor Silva 15. Laporte J. 3. Talbi M. 44. Yongwa D. 6. Abergel L. 77. Katseris P. 62. Avom A. 10. Pagis P. 22. Kroupi E. J. 28. Soumano S.	30. Placide J. (G) 24. Meynadier T. 28. Akueson G. 6. Guidi D. 17. Ariss Z. 13. Ducrocq T. 66. Janneh J. 22. Sebas J. 2. Inao Oulai C. 10. Boutrah A. 11. Cisse L.
Substitutes
9. Bamba M. 75. Fadiga B. 60. Genton E. 66. James I. 1. Leroy B. (G) 5. Mendy F. 93. Mvuka Mugisha J.	19. Aiki A. 33. Ble M. 15. Bohnert F. 14. Etoga L. 23. Fabri J. (G) 4. Roncaglia A. 7. Vincent C.
Coaches
Pantaloni O.	Tavenot B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Avom A. ⚽, Pagis P. (A),
38', Katseris P. 🟨,
39', Abergel L. 🟨,
42', 2 - 0, Kroupi E. J. (Pen),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Boutrah A. ↓, Ble M. ↑,
46', Janneh J. ↓, Etoga L. ↑,
50', Talbi M. 🟨,
65', Inao Oulai C. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
66', Cisse L. ↓, Aiki A. ↑,
68', Kroupi E. J. ↓, Bamba M. ↑,
70', 3 - 0, Katseris P. ⚽, Bamba M. (A),
76', Katseris P. ↓, Mvuka Mugisha J. ↑,
77', Soumano S. ↓, Mendy F. ↑,
77', Sebas J. 🟨,
84', Pagis P. ↓, Fadiga B. ↑,
84', Meynadier T. ↓, Bohnert F. ↑,
88', 4 - 0, Yongwa D. ⚽, Bamba M. (A),

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lorient won 1.

Recent matches Lorient is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Bastia is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Bastia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Lorient is a favorite.

There will not play in Lorient: Adjei N. (Ankle Injury) Diarra S. (Injury) Kalulu G. (Injury) Ponceau J. (Injury) Tosin A. (Injury)

There will not play in Bastia: Maggiotti J. (Injury) Mazikou S. (Injury) Roncaglia A. (Inactive) Tomi F. (Injury) Tramoni L. (Inactive)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Lorient won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 14:15 (average 1.2:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Lorient won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:6 (average 1.6:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lorient
French Ligue 2
08.03.25	Paris FC - Lorient	3:2 ✺
01.03.25	Lorient - Rodez	3:1 ✺
22.02.25	Lorient - Laval	0:1 ✺
14.02.25	Troyes - Lorient	0:1 ✺
08.02.25	Lorient - Amiens	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLWW
- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
07.03.25	Bastia - Martigues	1:0 ✺
28.02.25	Troyes - Bastia	2:0 ✺
21.02.25	Bastia - Red Star	1:0 ✺
14.02.25	Clermont - Bastia	1:1 ✺
07.02.25	Rodez - Bastia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
23.11.24	Bastia - Lorient	0:0
Coupe De France
21.01.23	Bastia - Lorient	1:2 penalties
French Ligue 1
14.05.17	Bastia - Lorient	2:0
20.08.16	Lorient - Bastia	0:3
05.03.16	Bastia - Lorient	0:0
16.08.15	Lorient - Bastia	1:1
28.02.15	Lorient - Bastia	2:0

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