Match Info

Championship - Round 44

Date: 21 April 2025, Monday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Busby J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Net4+
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Luton Town		Bristol City

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.25	3	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.85
	2.46	3.25	2.95	Watch
	2.49	3.3	3.08
	2.55	3.17	2.91	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.9
	2.49	3.18	2.98	Watch
	2.46	3.25	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.74)	3.21 ↓ (3.28)	2.95 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
38.3%

Draw
29.5%

Bristol City
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

28.8%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

29.3%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Bristol City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bristol City than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.6%	17.6%	11.8%

Luton Town - Bristol City Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 24 - 70.6%). Bristol City will win (votes: 4 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luton: 55.3% – 85.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Luton (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Bristol City (1.77) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Bristol City (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Luton Town will win (13 of 17 users predict this - 76.47%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 14 - 66.7%). Bristol City (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Kaminski T. (G) 28. Makosso C. 6. McGuinness M. 15. Mengi T. 25. Jones I. 22. Dabo L. 8. Aasgaard T. 20. Walsh L. 3. Bell A. 9. Morris C. (C) 21. Alli M.	1. O'Leary M. (G) 19. Tanner G. 16. Dickie R. 14. Vyner Z. 2. McCrorie R. 29. McGuane M. 12. Knight J. (C) 3. Pring C. 6. Bird M. 11. Mehmeti A. 21. Wells N.
Substitutes
5. Andersen M. 26. Baptiste S. 16. Burke R. 14. Chong T. 27. Hashioka D. 23. Krul T. (G) 13. Nakamba M. 37. Nelson Z. 44. Nordas L.	30. Armstrong S. 23. Bajic S. (G) 20. Bell S. 40. Earthy G. 7. Hirakawa Y. 31. Morrison E. 24. Roberts H. 10. Twine S. 8. Williams J.
Coaches
Bloomfield M.	Manning L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Pring C. ↓, Roberts H. ↑,
22', McCrorie R. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
49', 1 - 0, Aasgaard T. ⚽, Makosso C. (A),
52', 1 - 1, Tanner G. ⚽,
59', 2 - 1, Morris C. ⚽, Mengi T. (A),
60', Bird M. ↓, Armstrong S. ↑,
60', Wells N. ↓, Earthy G. ↑,
67', Makosso C. ↓, Burke R. ↑,
72', 3 - 1, Jones I. ⚽,
76', McCrorie R. ↓, Morrison E. ↑,
76', Mehmeti A. ↓, Twine S. ↑,
82', Earthy G. 🟨,
82', Dabo L. ↓, Baptiste S. ↑,
83', Knight J. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Luton won 2.

Recent matches Luton is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bristol City is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Baptiste S. (Muscle Injury) Brown J. (Ankle Injury) Doughty A. (Injury) Lockyer T. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Bristol City: Benarous A. (Hamstring Injury) Cornick H. (Hamstring Injury) McNally L. (Knee Injury) Sykes M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Bristol City: Campbell-Slowey J. (Calf Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Luton won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:12 (average 1.5:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Luton won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11:3 (average 2.2:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Bristol City - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 36.62%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League Championship
18.04.25	Derby County - Luton Town	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	Luton Town - Blackburn Rovers	0:1 ✺
08.04.25	Stoke City - Luton Town	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Luton Town - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Hull City - Luton Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 WLTTW
- Bristol City
English League Championship
18.04.25	Bristol City - Sunderland	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Queens Park Rangers - Bristol City	1:1 ✺
08.04.25	Bristol City - West Bromwich Albion	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Bristol City - Watford	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Burnley - Bristol City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
26.12.24	Bristol City - Luton Town	1:0
15.03.23	Luton Town - Bristol City	1:0
16.08.22	Bristol City - Luton Town	2:0
25.01.22	Luton Town - Bristol City	2:1
15.09.21	Bristol City - Luton Town	1:1
25.04.21	Bristol City - Luton Town	2:3
29.12.20	Luton Town - Bristol City	2:1

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