Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 29

Date: 25 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Ward G. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Luton Town		Millwall

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.6	Watch
	2.2	3	3.6
	2.21	3.04	3.67	Watch
	2.27	3.07	3.75
	2.22	3.06	3.68	Watch
	2.25	3	3.6
	2.24	3.05	3.6	Watch
	2.21	3.04	3.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.31)	3.03 ↓ (3.32)	3.65 ↑ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
42.7%

Draw
31.3%

Millwall
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

28.5%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

28.6%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Millwall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	37.5%	25%

Luton Town - Millwall Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 9 - 39.1%). Millwall will win (votes: 5 - 21.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 39.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luton: 19.2% – 59%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Kaminski T. (G) 27. Hashioka D. 6. McGuinness M. 5. Andersen M. 3. Bell A. 13. Nakamba M. 19. Brown J. 8. Krauss T. 18. Clark J. 45. Doughty A. 9. Morris C. (C)	1. Jensen L. (G) 52. Crama T. 6. Tanganga J. 5. Cooper J. (C) 15. Bryan J. 23. Saville G. 24. De Norre C. 19. Watmore D. 31. Bangura-Williams R. 33. Scanlon C. 26. Ivanovic M.
Substitutes
11. Adebayo E. 29. Holmes T. 25. Jones I. 23. Krul T. (G) 17. Mpanzu P. 37. Nelson Z. 20. Walsh L. 2. Walters R. 10. Woodrow C.	9. Connolly A. 45. Harding W. 39. Honeyman G. 4. Hutchinson S. 29. Leahy T. 12. Mayor A. 8. Mitchell B. 13. Roberts L. (G) 3. Wallace M.
Coaches
Bloomfield M.	Neil A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Scanlon C. ↓, Connolly A. ↑,
34', Connolly A. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Krauss T. ↓, Adebayo E. ↑,
61', 0 - 1, Ivanovic M. ⚽, Bangura-Williams R. (A),
68', Brown J. ↓, Nelson Z. ↑,
68', Doughty A. ↓, Jones I. ↑,
71', Saville G. 🟨,
74', Andersen M. 🟨,
74', Cooper J. 🟨,
76', Nakamba M. ↓, Walsh L. ↑,
84', Watmore D. ↓, Honeyman G. ↑,
88', Honeyman G. 🟨,
90+3', Jensen L. ↓, Roberts L. ↑,
90+7', Tanganga J. 🟨,
90+8', Walsh L. 🟨,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 17).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Luton won 2.

Luton has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Millwall is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Millwall have a series of home games.

Luton will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Luton: Baptiste S. (Calf Injury) Burke R. (Hip Injury) Chong T. (Muscle Injury) Lockyer T. (Ankle Injury) Mengi T. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Millwall: Coburn J. (Broken Leg) Emakhu A. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Millwall: Bangura-Williams R. (Injury) Leonard R. (Injury) McNamara D. (Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Luton won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 11:17 (average 1:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Luton won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:12 (average 1.2:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League Championship
21.01.25	Oxford United - Luton Town	3:2 ✺
18.01.25	Luton Town - Preston North End	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
11.01.25	Nottingham Forest - Luton Town	2:0 ✺
English League Championship
06.01.25	Queens Park Rangers - Luton Town	2:1 ✺
01.01.25	Luton Town - Norwich City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLLL
- Millwall
English League Championship
21.01.25	Millwall - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
18.01.25	Millwall - Hull City	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
13.01.25	Millwall - Dagenham & Redbridge	3:0 ✺
English League Championship
04.01.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Millwall	2:2 ✺
01.01.25	Millwall - Oxford United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
14.09.24	Millwall - Luton Town	0:1
07.04.23	Millwall - Luton Town	0:0
28.02.23	Luton Town - Millwall	2:2
02.04.22	Luton Town - Millwall	2:2
16.10.21	Millwall - Luton Town	0:2
23.02.21	Luton Town - Millwall	1:1
20.10.20	Millwall - Luton Town	2:0

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